Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets

Jun 07 2008

NFL Team Offensive Fantasy Prospects

Written by Jeremy Wood at 11:24 am under Team Focus

Play DiagramGaining offensive yardage in a pro football game is one of the most teamwork-intensive tasks in all of sports. Eleven players have to execute their tasks on every play, with one mishap resulting in the entire play blowing up. Running a play is comparable to executing a complex choreographed dance routine, only with eleven guys running around trying to mess you up and put you in the hospital in the process.

How does this relate to fantasy football? It’s important because when an offense is running well, everyone is involved and is putting up numbers; whereas a poorly orchestrated offense (even one with talented players who are potential fantasy studs) won’t give you consistent production from anyone on a weekly basis.

Now that the NFL draft has passed and player movement is likely to be minimal from now until September, it’s time to rank the overall offenses for fantasy purposes. This is especially useful if you play in a deep fantasy league and are searching for guys to fill out your roster. As in the real NFL draft, everyone knows who the top players are. It’s the guys you pick up in the later rounds that can make or break your season. Due to the symbiotic nature of offenses, an overall evaluation of the team’s offense is a better tool for evaluating your fantasy draft picks than an individual’s talent. In other words, taking a lower-ranked receiver on a good offense like Anthony Gonzalez from Indianapolis is a much safer bet than going after a starter with a good reputation but is playing on a sputtering offense (Lee Evans in Buffalo is a great example).

Since everybody is going to know what you’re getting out of the top offenses in the league, I won’t spend much time analyzing them. The purpose of this article is to find the offenses poised to break through in 2008, and the ones that will bog down the fantasy production of their quarterbacks and receivers.

Predictable Commodities (in no particular order)

New England Patriots

Dallas Cowboys

New Orleans Saints

Seattle Seahawks

Indianapolis Colts

Pittsburgh Steelers

Cincinnati Bengals

The rest of the offenses are ranked in order of fantasy potential:

Cleveland Browns – This offense surprised everybody a year ago, as Derek Anderson came into his own at QB and young receiver Braylon Edwards became a fantasy force. I’m not sure what they’re doing at quarterback now, after they re-signed Anderson to a three-year deal but haven’t seemed interested in moving Brady Quinn, who was supposed to be the quarterback of the future until Anderson broke through. Assume Anderson will hang on to the starter’s role and continue to improve his play, which will result in a few more touchdowns and a reduction in his interceptions (19 a year ago). Bottom line: Unless he slides back, this offense remains just a step behind the NFL’s elite. BEST SLEEPER: This is exactly the type of offense where you want to go after the second-level guys, and steady old pro Joe Jurevicius should get plenty of opportunities, especially if new WR Donte Stallworth gets injured.

San Diego Chargers – A year ago, they would have been in the “sure things” category. Even though they made the AFC Championship and LaDainian Tomlinson is still the best running back in the game, QB Philip Rivers seemed to regress a year ago, and none of the young receivers have really broken out. Vincent Jackson was everyone’s favorite sleeper a year ago, but he struggled most of the way, only putting up big numbers in the NFL postseason. Bottom line: Tomlinson is a top-three fantasy pick, but the rest of the offense depends on Rivers. BEST SLEEPER: I won’t go for double jeopardy with Jackson, so take a look at 2007 first-round pick Craig Davis.

Denver Broncos – This could be the perfect storm for fantasy offenses. Young franchise quarterback Jay Cutler should really come into his own this season, he has some good targets in Brandon Marshall (assuming he’s healthy), Brandon Stokely and Tony Scheffler. Plus the defense is terrible, so Cutler should be throwing a lot more to keep the Broncos in games. Bottom line: Mike Shanahan should keep things balanced and there will be plenty of scoring on offense to go around, so when in doubt, a Bronco is a good thing to grab. BEST SLEEPER: WR Keary Colbert had a nice rookie season in Carolina a few years ago, then dropped off. Cutler and Shanahan might be able to revive his career.

Philadelphia Eagles – It all depends on Donovan McNabb. Philly wisely held onto the veteran quarterback this offseason, and he could lead a dangerous offense this season. McNabb is well-versed in the system, and his receivers are better than people think. Bottom line: The offense will still revolve around tailback Brian Westbrook, but contributions will come from up and down the receiver depth chart. BEST SLEEPER: If he holds off rookie DeSean Jackson, receiver Jason Avant could make the leap to fantasy gem as the slot receiver.

New York Giants – Eli Manning will be a hotter commodity in fantasy leagues after the Super Bowl win, but he’s still not an elite fantasy QB until he proves he can put up big numbers on a weekly basis. Bottom line: This is a solid but unspectacular offense with Plaxico Burress as a big playmaker but contributions coming from a lot of players. BEST SLEEPER: If he’s healthy, rookie wide receiver Mario Manningham could make a difference right away.

Arizona Cardinals – Matt Leinart’s health remains the burning question, as there are a lot of pieces in place for the Cards to contend for a playoff spot. Boldin and Fitzgerald are two terrific receivers, and the offensive line is finally good enough to hold up in protection. Bottom line: This is another offense that could break through and become a vogue fantasy factory. BEST SLEEPER: Rookie Early Doucet did his best work as a slot guy in college, and he’ll work out of the slot for the Cards with Fitzgerald and Boldin on the outside.

Green Bay Packers – Much like the Vikings, I don’t understand why everyone expects the incumbent quarterback to fail. Aaron Rodgers was a first-round pick three years ago, and he’s had plenty of time to learn things while watching Brett Favre play. Sure, there’s pressure on him to replace Favre, but he’s stepping into the best situation possible: Good offensive line, good running back, cohesive group of wide receivers. Bottom line: Rookie Brian Brohm will remain a backup while Rodgers leads the Pack back to the playoffs. BEST SLEEPER: If everyone else in your league expects Rodgers to fail, snap him up as a No. 2 QB.

Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jags look serious about being Super Bowl contenders, but that doesn’t make their offensive players fantasy must-haves. Even at running back, the splitting-carries system reduces the value of both Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. Due to the strong running game and conservative philosophy, QB David Garrard is a safe pick, but he’s not going to pile up big numbers in this offense. Garrard’s skills are also a mismatch for Jacksonville’s collection of wide receivers, as he doesn’t have a cannon for an arm but the team has stockpiled burners who specialize in going deep. Bottom line: The Jags will spend a lot of second halves running the ball and trying to burn clock, which doesn’t bode well for the fantasy prospects of the passing game. BEST SLEEPER: WR Jerry Porter, a new acquisition, is listed as a starter right now. If he shows that his struggles in Oakland the last couple years were all mental, he’ll become Garrard’s new favorite target.

Minnesota Vikings – The Vikes are another one of my favorite sleeper offenses. Tavares Jackson takes a lot of heat as the starting quarterback, but coach Brad Childress would be right to stick with him. It takes a few years for quarterbacks to really develop, and Jackson is in a nice situation to take the next step. Minnesota has a good offensive line, and having two terrific running backs in Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor will take a lot of pressure off Jackson. A lot of people think rookie John David Booty will unseat Jackson, but I’m in the opposite camp. Jackson has a solid young group of receivers to throw to, and he’ll take the next step. Bottom line: An improved Jackson makes this a dangerous offense, especially with teams focused on stopping Peterson. BEST SLEEPER: Sidney Rice becomes a starter. He had outstanding bursts of production last year; consistent playing time and opportunities will help him become a household name .

Houston Texans – The big question for the Texans: Has the offensive line improved enough for this offense to turn the corner? This team always seems to be on the verge of breaking through. Playing in a murderously tough division doesn’t help either, but you could have said the same thing about Cleveland a year ago. The big key is the health of quarterback Matt Schaub, who looked competent when he wasn’t banged up a year ago. Bottom line: This could become 2008’s bandwagon offense, so try to get a piece of the action early and cheaply if you can. Schaub and WR Andre Johnson are on everyone’s radar screen, so wait until later for a good value. BEST SLEEPER: WR Kevin Walter.

New York Jets – The passing game might be the only thing holding this team back from a breakthrough. Neither Chad Pennington nor Kellen Clemens set the world on fire at quarterback in last year’s miserable season, but they’re battling again for the starting job. Clemens still has the potential to develop into an effective starter, and with the upgrades on the offensive line and a decent group of receivers, he can’t use ineffective teammates as an excuse for poor play any more. Bottom line: Monitor Clemens’ progress, because if he turns the corner this can be a playoff team with a good offense. BEST SLEEPER: If you have the roster space for a third quarterback, Clemens is as good a gamble as any.

Buffalo Bills – It looks like the team has settled on Trent Edwards as the starting quarterback, which is a bit of good news. More good news for Bills fans: With the offseason moves to upgrade the defense, this team looks like a legitimate playoff contender, even without a consistent offense. The problem for fantasy owners is that this team looks built to win by playing conservatively, and young running back Marshawn Lynch will carry the offense. I’m a little concerned about the offensive line and its ability to protect Edwards enough that he develops into an upper-echelon passer. Bottom line: Lee Evans’ big-play ability at WR will get him drafted in just about any league, but don’t overpay for him. This passing game likely won’t be extremely productive, even if the team is winning games. BEST SLEEPER: If he’s healthy, 6’5” rookie WR James Hardy could be the beneficiary of a lot of jump balls in the end zone.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – This team somehow made the playoffs a year ago with Jeff Garcia managing games at quarterback. Game-management quarterbacks generally make for poor fantasy outputs, however, so don’t look at Tampa for a lot of options. Age hasn’t caught up to Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard yet, but there aren’t any proven pass-catchers behind them (unless you count the maddening Michael Clayton, who had a great rookie year and followed it up with two straight clunkers). Bottom line: This team should be able to win ugly again and be a contender, but with Garcia at quarterback there won’t be a lot of fantasy points. BEST SLEEPER: Tight end Alex Smith has the talent; if Garcia looks to him a little more often he’ll be a fine fantasy option.

San Francisco 49ers – Losing Norv Turner might have killed the development of Alex Smith, the former No. 1 pick at quarterback. Now, Smith is having to compete for his job instead of look to take the next step to Pro-Bowler status. The Niners have upgraded their offensive line somewhat, but their receivers are still sketchy. The upside? New offensive coordinator Mike Martz loves to throw the ball, and if Smith can fit into the system, this offense could be a lot better than people think, especially when it comes to fantasy points. Bottom line: If Smith and Martz cooperate, you might want to have a 49er on your team come midseason. BEST SLEEPER: Running back Frank Gore should become a fantasy monster along the lines of Marshall Faulk with Martz pulling the strings, but this story is about the passing game. Out of the shadows of Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona, WR Bryant Johnson could be a nice pick.

Carolina Panthers – Jake Delhomme missed most of last season with injury, but even when he’s healthy I question his effectiveness. The Panthers clearly are trying to be a run-oriented team with Steve Smith as their one explosive wide receiver. However, the uncertainty at quarterback means Smith is no longer the top fantasy wide receiver in the league. Bottom line: I like D.J. Hackett across from Smith, but with a run-first philosophy and questions at quarterback, this passing game isn’t one to hitch the wagon to. BEST SLEEPER: If second-year receiver Dwayne Jarrett has his head on straight, he’ll be a solid third option for Delhomme.

Tennessee Titans – Did you ever have an owner in your fantasy league who became infatuated with Michael Vick and drafted him way too high? I sure did, and I see the same kind of effect with Vince Young. Young is a special player who finds ways to win games, but he’s not a great passer and shouldn’t get fantasy respect until he proves that he can throw for touchdowns consistently. Granted, a lack of top-end receivers doesn’t help, but that’s not your problem as a fantasy owner. Bottom line: Another team that will try to win with the running game, defense and one or two big plays from Young a game, but won’t light up the scoreboard with passing stats. BEST SLEEPER: Alge Crumpler doesn’t qualify as a sleeper, and neither Young nor any other receivers are worth drafting. However, keep an eye on receiver Mike Williams, a former first-round pick who has one last chance to prove he can play in the league.

St. Louis Rams – The “Greatest Show on Turf” offenses at the turn of the decade epitomized the type of hot offense that churns out fantasy starters. Now, things have changed quite a bit. Marc Bulger is still around running the show on offense, assuming he doesn’t get banged up behind a mediocre line. Bottom line: This will be an improved team over a year ago after a good draft, but it’s still a run-oriented team with tough RB Stephen Jackson. BEST SLEEPER: WR Dane Looker should put up decent numbers opposite Torry Holt.

Washington Redskins – This would be about the time for Jason Campbell to take the next step forward, but the lack of continuity from the coaching staff worries me. The pieces are there for a good offense, but Campbell will have to familiarize himself with the new staff in a hurry if he’s going to be a top fantasy weapon. Bottom line: Be wary of any Redskins, especially early on in the draft. BEST SLEEPER: Any of the trio of rookie pass-catchers (receivers Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly, tight end Fred Davis) is a worthwhile gamble.

Detroit Lions – Even in fantasy football, it’s tough to trust anybody from the Lions to do well. With Mike Martz as the coordinator for the past two seasons, Jon Kitna actually put up good numbers, as did receiver Roy Williams. Martz is gone now, and I see the Lions playing things a little more conservatively. Maybe Drew Stanton will get a look at quarterback too. Williams and Calvin Johnson are both terrific receivers, although Johnson hasn’t proven he can be consistently productive. Bottom line: There isn’t a single elite offensive player on the team, and you’re not going to get big-time fantasy points from a Lion. BEST SLEEPER: You shouldn’t draft him, but Stanton will probably start if Kitna and the team struggle, and he’s the future. If he has chemistry with Johnson and Williams, Stanton might actually be a decent backup fantasy quarterback.

Kansas City Chiefs – The poor offensive line has really hindered the development of QB Brodie Croyle, who can’t be evaluated until he’s had a chance to play without getting hit constantly. Despite changing quarterbacks and the porous offensive line, rookie WR Dwayne Bowe nearly put up 1,000 yards receiving last season. He’ll be a legitimate fantasy option this year, and Tony Gonzalez remains a viable tight end, but the rest of this offense is something to stay away from. Bottom line: If the line improves in a hurry, Croyle will be throwing a lot to keep the team in games because the defense is porous. BEST SLEEPER: Croyle is a better bet than any of the receivers behind Bowe and Gonzalez.

Oakland Raiders – JaMarcus Russell is going in as the top quarterback, but no one can tell if he’s ready to be a big-time starter in the NFL yet. The Raiders picked up Javon Walker to help the passing game, but he looks like a boom-or-bust fantasy pick, given that the passing game will probably struggle. Oakland’s wealth of running backs also bodes poorly for Russell’s chances of productivity. Bottom line: This offense is still going to struggle, so don’t expect anything big from the Raiders on a consistent basis, even with Walker in the fold. BEST SLEEPER: I love tight end Zach Miller, a second-year player who Russell will have to rely on when the protection breaks down.

Chicago Bears – They gave Rex Grossman one more chance, and they should be applauded for doing so. Unfortunately for Grossman, he’s dropping back behind a porous offensive line and hasw a mediocre group of receivers to throw to. Bottom line: Grossman will take the blame as the offense continues to backslide. BEST SLEEPER: Second-year tight end Greg Olsen will hopefully take a step forward, but don’t count on it with Grossman throwing him the ball.

Baltimore Ravens – The mess at quarterback renders this offense almost as bad as Miami’s for fantasy purposes (although the Ravens should be able to win a few more games). The team announced that they’ve given up on Kyle Boller and don’t think Troy Smith can hack it at QB when they drafted Joe Flacco in the first round. While Flacco is the future, no one knows what they’re going to do this season. Flacco will probably need some time to adjust to the speed of NFL defenses before he can be productive, even if he does win the starting job out of training camp. Bottom line: Regardless of who starts at quarterback, this offense will live and die with the running game, so don’t expect a lot of passing yardage and touchdowns. BEST SLEEPER: WR Demetrius Williams should move into the starting lineup to replace Derrick Mason at some point, but he’s still not a weekly starter in fantasy lineups.

Atlanta Falcons – The drafting of Matt Ryan and the hire of Mike Smith as coach signal a new era for the franchise, but it will take a few years for the team to reach respectability. Don’t expect much in terms of fantasy production out of anyone on this offense, including big-money free agent pickup running back Michael Turner. The line is going to be terrible, and Ryan is a gamble like any other rookie quarterback. A year ago, Roddy White had a surprisingly good season with Joey Harrington throwing him the ball, so he’s proven that he can produce. Bottom line: Don’t expect week-to-week production from any Falcons offensive players. BEST SLEEPER: New starting tight end Ben Hartsock is expected to get more opportunities in the offense.

Miami Dolphins – While the Dolphins made a wise move by taking a top-rated offensive tackle (Jake Long) with the first pick in the draft, that pick won’t pay any dividends in fantasy football this season. Miami should be able to run the ball effectively this season, but they’ll probably be behind in a lot of games and have to try to pass. With that being said, they lack any semblance of a proven quarterback and the best characterization for their receivers is unproven. A lot of people think second-round pick Chad Henne will challenge for the starting quarterback job right away. I’m a Michigan fan who watched Henne play a lot in college, and I don’t see him being a great pro, especially on a team with a terrible offense. Bottom line: This passing game is a fantasy black hole, so don’t draft a Miami quarterback or receiver unless you’re desperate. BEST SLEEPER: Tight end Anthony Fasano came over from Dallas in a trade and he should be th e starter.

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