In 2005 - the fledgling NFL Network captured images from week 1 and converted them into promotional commercials. One in particular featured some amazing video of a second year running back from Pittsburgh - ripping through the Tennessee Titans defense with the speed and grace of a future Hall of Famer.

NFL Network decided to show the commercial, on average, about one thousand times an hour - every day for the rest of the season - to the point where I wanted to puncture my eardrums just so I didn’t have to hear the opening line one more time.

“Who is Willie Parker?”

Three years later- those words are ringing in my head again. It isn’t from the commercial though - it’s from my inner fantasy football manager. And it’s a question I really need an answer to.

For starters - I can’t help wondering if the Steelers coaching staff is confident with the answer they came up with in 2007. The numbers were good. His 1,316 yards was fourth best in the league. His 321 carries was 3^rd highest. His 4.1 yards per carry wasn’t great - but wasn’t awful by any means - good enough for 15^th on a list of the top 25 running backs. Can this season be classified a disappointment?

Everything is relative. Most teams would be pleased to have a running back capable of producing these types of numbers - but the Steelers were banking on Parker’s numbers improving, not slipping. In 2006 - Parker rushed just six yards shy of 1,500 yards - at a 4.4 yard per carry clip. Perhaps even more importantly - he entered the endzone 16 times in ’06 - and only 2 times in ’07. Lest anyone think that was a misprint - let me say it again. Parker scored only twice in 2007.

If this were a normal situation, we might just start talking about the outlook for Parker in ’08. But the Steelers threw in a big wrinkle on draft day - using their first pick - 23^rd overall - on Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall. Few teams use a first round pick on a player just to let him ride the bench. The speedy, strong, athletic Mendenhall can be expected to get some touches. The question is - how many and how will it effect Parker?

It’s way too early to even guess at an answer to the first part of that question. We don’t know when Mendenhall will sign, how fast he can pick up the offense, and how his skills translate to the NFL. He may get 12 carries a game - or he may see the occasional spot duty during blow-outs. His progress is something that needs to be watched through August. As for what it will do to Parker’s performance - that’s a difficult question as well. A back who carries over 300 times in a year is usually one who doesn’t like to split carries at all. Work horse type backs generally feel that they need a certain amount of carries to find a rhythm. Aside from the sheer loss of opportunity - could a tandem scenario throw Parker’s game out of whack?

Anything is possible. I realize that doesn’t help in the least when you go to fill in your draft board - but this is a situation that can only be managed with close monitoring of the team workout reports, pre-season games, and press conferences. Reporters will without a doubt question head coach Mike Tomlin countless times how he plans to use his two running backs - what the workload share will be - and who will get goal line duty. And although he will likely be vague in his answers - there will be kernels of truth hidden in them.

If you’re desperate - needing a best guess right now kind of desperate - here it is. Parker’s overall numbers will decline from 2007 - but if he can increase his unusually low amount of touchdowns he may still do better than being the 19^th ranked running back in most standard scoring systems. If we assume an average of 25 carries a game for the Steelers - I imagine Mendenhall getting between 7-10 of them weekly. If the two backs are fielded in two back sets - I don’t think that number changes much - but that may change depending on how it works out early in the season. Two back sets might lead to an increase in Parker’s receptions - but that’s pure speculation at this point.

If I’m right - and Parker gets limited to around 15 carries a game - his 4.1 average per carry from 2007 would only amount to a 984 yard season. Even if the decrease in workload leads to an increase in productivity - a 5.5 yards per carry effort would end in another 1,300 yard season. And how realistic is a full yard and a half per carry increase?

Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor have a very successful tandem working in Jacksonville. They split carries around 13 per game for Taylor - and 10 for Jones-Drew. They finished 13^th (Drew) and 15^th (Taylor) for overall fantasy RB’s in a standard scoring system. Jacksonville has two extremely talented RB’s - and are the model of a tandem scheme for the league. I see similar production as the upside for Willie Parker in ’08.

If it should become apparent that Mendenhall does not factor significantly into the Steelers 2008 plans - Parker’s value goes up. If he was flying solo in the back field - Parker almost can’t help but improve on last year’s numbers - because only scoring two touchdowns was an anomaly. Without any significant improvement - he should at least quadruple that number based on the law of probability. And the improvements the Steelers have made to the offense (including drafting WR Limas Sweed) should help this unit have another solid year - and there is no reason Parker wouldn’t repeat his 1,300 yard performance.

Expect rookie Mendenhall to decrease Parker’s workload - and with his advantage in strength he will likely get goal line duty. And although this may improve the Steelers playoff hopes - and extend Parker’s career - it will almost assuredly drop his fantasy value. A player’s athletic skills and his team’s offensive prowess are obviously important - but nothing is more important than touches you can count on. With more teams looking to go running back by committee - the full time - 25 carry starters are becoming more and more valuable.