It’s been three years since Donovan McNabb played sixteen games in a season. Four if you want to be technical - but that’s a little unfair. In 2004 he was benched in week 16 to prepare for a playoff run to the Super Bowl.

Three long years without completing a full season. That’s enough to make anyone nervous. But if we look inside the numbers - injuries may not be the biggest concern when drafting McNabb. His numbers - even at full health - are not always top tier.

Consider Donovan’s career numbers. His 85.9 career QB rating is lower then 20 of the 32 starters last season. Lower than all 5 of the QB’s drafted in front of him in 2007 (P. Manning, Brady, Palmer, Brees, and Bulger). It’s also lower then 5 of the QB’s drafted below him (Romo, Warner, Roethlisberger, Hasselbeck, and Cutler). Those five players were among the 13 total QB’s who finished above McNabb in fantasy scoring.

Quarterback rating is not the last word in QB value. No stat is. But when you crunch the numbers - you may not see McNabb as the top 10 fantasy QB everyone seems to think he is. His athleticism and win/loss record keep owners coming back in the early rounds. But consider that Kurt Warner - undrafted in most 2007 leagues - also missed two games like Donovan - and finished well ahead of McNabb in scoring. Starting to get a clearer picture of McNabb’s lack of fantasy pop?

In 2004 - Donovan enjoyed the highest completion percentage of his career (64%). Ditto for his total passing yards (3875), his QB rating (104.7), and TD’s (31). Was 2004 the year McNabb finally grasped the offense? Was it the year that he learned how to release the ball so it wouldn’t bounce off the turf before reaching the intended recipient? No. 2004 was the year he had Terrell Owens on his team - and those numbers are mostly a reflection of TO’s talent - and not McNabb’s. And in case you’ve been unconscious for the last 3 years - Owens is long gone - and no real replacement has been found.

This article is not meant to be an analysis of McNabb’s NFL worthiness - but of his fantasy value. Of course, the two often go hand in hand. Fantasy owners tend to confuse high profile with high production. It’s the reason Troy Aikman used to go much higher then warranted. Although McNabb has speed and athleticism to spare - he’s never become the rushing threat fans expected. And although the Eagles have been very successful during his tenure - they haven’t accomplished it with a high power offense. In the 3 seasons McNabb played a full 16 game slate - he passed for 21, 25, & 16 TD’s respectively. In one of those seasons - he rushed for 6 scores - but rushed for only 5 in the other two combined. In that time, the Eagles offense hovered around the halfway point of the NFL rankings - other than 2004.

So what’s the real 411 on Philly’s number 5? McNabb is a tough, intelligent player who gets better the closer the game resembles what coaches have prepared him for in practice. When game plans go awry - so does Donovan. He also struggles with his accuracy, sometimes painfully so. He plays in an offense that can be called deliberate at times - ineffective at others. So far, the Eagles seem content to keep the same medcicore receiving weapons McNabb took into last season - and if they go for a WR in the draft - remember that rookie receivers rarely make a big impact in their first season. So once again Eagles’ fans can expect a lot of failed 3rd down conversions, and a heavy dose of Brian Westbrook. Luckily, Westbrook does a lot of damage off screen passes and other high percentage pass plays - and that greatly helps the passing numbers. But that’s usually only worthy of looking at McNabb after the top dozen QB’s are gone.

And that brings us back to the injuries. It is a real concern when a player misses as much time as Donovan has in his career - and becomes even more alarming when you look at the relatively mundane plays in which he became disabled. (The major knee injury in 2006 came on a scramble out of bounds where Donovan went literally untouched.) It’s common knowledge that a knee injury as severe as Donovan suffered in 2006 takes a full year or more to completely heal - and it can be reasonably assumed that he is 100% healthy going into 2008. But for how long?

The more Donovan plays within himself, the better the Eagles chances are to make the playoffs. But this won’t help fantasy owners who bank on him being a full season number one. A solid, full season should bring around twenty-five TD’s and 3,200 yards - decent numbers. But there is a downside of injury and a history of below average play that has to be factored in. In 2007, Donovan was generally drafted near the end of the fourth round. With the disappointing ’07 season, I would expect to see him go a full round later. But with the roster the Eagles have as of this writing, that still seems early to me. McNabb lands around thirteen in the QB column of my draft board. It remains to be seen if the draft and/or training camp does anything to change my mind. And the trade talk surrounding McNabb - some of it generated by Donovan himself - could also factor in.