Apr 14 2008
To LT or not LT… There is no Question…
In 2007, LaDainian Tomlinson was essentially the unanimous choice at number one in fantasy drafts. And with good reason. LT finished at the top of most fantasy scoring lists in ’06 - a spot generally reserved for the most prolific QB.
The phenomenon from San Diego didn’t disappoint. After a relatively slow start, his 1500 rushing yards and 19 TD’s (15 rushing, 3 receiving, and 1 passing) proved enough to finish number two overall in most scoring systems, second only to the gaudy numbers posted by Tom Brady. It was more than enough to finish well above the three players taken almost immediately after him (S. Jackson, L. Johnson, and F. Gore).
So with production like that - we can pencil LT into the number one slot for 2008 as well, right?
Not so fast.
A young buck by the name of Adrian Peterson, RB Minnesota, seems to have caught the attention of owners trying to outsmart the rest of their league - and some are considering passing on LT for the second year man busting with potential. And the early questions may sound something like “Are you crazy?”
They may be. Crazy like a fox. Consider the case for Peterson.
As a rookie, Adrian finished fourth in fantasy scoring for running backs - 13th overall. His season included 1,341 rushing yards- at a healthy 5.6 yards per clip, 13 TD’s, and a shiny offensive rookie of the year award. Factor in that he missed two games, played for an 8-8 team with a inexperienced, struggling QB - and those numbers are even more impressive.
It would seem the sky is the limit for Peterson. The Vikings added a badly needed veteran receiver - Bernard Berrian - who brings experience and hands to an offense that desperately needs both. And Tarvaris Jackson should be better as well. Although his QB rating for ’07 was an ugly 70.8 - consider that over a five game win streak in the second half of the season - he boasted ratings of 110.4, 95.9, and even an incredible 139.2 against the eventual Super Bowl champs out of New York. (In the interest of full disclosure - that game against the Giants only featured 12 passing attempts and 129 total passing yards - but the point is that his improved completion percentage during that span is enough to believe that Jackson - and the Vikings offense - will be better.)
There is some possible downside with Peterson - but nothing that should make owners want to avoid him. Suffering a pesky injury in his first season might raise a few eyebrows. Does he have the physical fortitude to withstand the pounding of an NFL season? And where is Adrian in the Vikings passing game? Only 19 receptions for 268 yards in ‘07. Will they figure out a way to get him involved through the air? And is his late season drop off in production a concern? He failed to break 100 yards in 5 of his last 6 games.
A few games does not an injury history make - and factoring in the unknown will lead to a poorly constructed draft board. And it stands to reason that as Jackson settles in at QB - the coaches will find a way to get their best weapon involved in that aspect of the offense. As for the drop in production… that can most likely be credited to the fact that opponents developed a game plan to basically stop Peterson and see what happened next.
With all that in mind - I confidently say to you that the first pick in all fantasy drafts should be….
LaDainian Tomlinson.
Wipe the stars from your eyes and settle back down on planet earth. You have every reason to think that Adrian Peterson will be a stud - and if you’re picking anywhere from second to seventh - Peterson is a legitimate pick. And if you’re picking after that - and Peterson is still on the board - you’re a fool if you pass on him. But nothing would compare to the mistake of missing a chance to get Tomlinson on your squad.
Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you… LT.
10,650 yards over his seven year career. Back to back rushing champ the last two seasons - 16 game stretches that featured 31 & 18 TD’s respectively (not including the 3 he passed for). He finished 1 and 2 in overall fantasy scoring in ’06 and ’07. In those years - his team won the division with records of 14-2 and 11-5 - riding offensives that ranked #1 and #5 in the NFL. To top it off - LT has played in 111 regular season games out of a possible 112. He’s a competitive, warrior with a motor that never stops and skills to spare. In the kingdom of fantasy football - LT is King - until such time as someone takes the crown. But he won’t be giving it away. In an interview last week - LT said his knee was fine and he expected to be 100% come week one. That’s good enough for me.
Adrian Peterson is tempting. With size that makes his speed and shiftiness all the more eye-popping - no one would be surprised if he led the league in rushing - or even someday challenged the most cherished rushing records. But until that time comes - he’s nothing more than potential in a purple shirt. LT is a proven mega-stud - producing consistently for seven years. Don’t lose the chance to have him anchor your line-up because your gut is telling you that the sophomore phenom is going to rush for 3000 yards. That’s a one way to ticket to disappointment.

