Jun 16 2008
Steve Smith - High Risk goes with High Reward
Steve Smith will likely be one of the top wide receivers taken in fantasy drafts this year. The question is whether you should be that guy.
His talent is immense, his production eye popping at times.
Smith has finished each of the last three years with more than 1,000 yards. He averaged 76 yards receiving and the better part of a touchdown per game over that span, making him one of the top fantasy producers at wide receiver.
In 2005 he posted more than 1,500 yards and 12TD’s. That was the year that many moved him to the top of their draft boards.
Those who did in 2007 began the season with great promise. In the first two games of the season, Smith racked up 271 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns. Those who drafted Smith were fantasizing about league championship trophies.
The fantasy turned to grim reality beginning in week three when Smith put up a whopping 10 yards without a TD.
The difference? Quarterback Jake Delhomme went down with injury during week 2 and didn’t play again last season. Delhomme and Smith have enjoyed a unique chemistry that highlights Smith’s skills and makes him virtually impossible to cover - Superman in shoulder pads. Remove Delhomme from the equation and it’s like putting Kryptonite in Smith’s hip pocket - he becomes very ordinary.
The chink in Smith’s armor? He is seemingly dependent on quarterback Jake Delhomme for consistent production.
Over the past three seasons Smith has averaged 100 yards and .8 TD’s per game when he has been on the field with Delhomme. Without Delhomme he has averaged 55 yards and .3 TD’s.
Prior to last season, the Panthers recognized the problem and brought in David Carr as a backup hoping that he would provide more consistency if Delhomme went down with injury. The result: A for effort, a generous C- for the result. Unfortunately, the backup spot does not look to be any stronger this year.
Other wide receivers are dependent on their quarterback for success. Think Randy Moss and his incredible ‘07 season with Tom Brady following an abysmal Oakland experiment that saw him drop out of fantasy relevance.
However, Smith’s situation warrants special attention because of the injury history of Delhomme. He missed 14 games last season and 4 the year before. Those 4 games missed in 2006 were weeks 14-17 which essentially killed many fantasy owners playoff run.
All reports are that Delhomme is looking stronger than ever and that his recovery from last season’s injury is well ahead of schedule. With this good news, Smith’s prospects look great. Imagine what Smith could have done over the last two years with a healthy Delhomme. Ah, the possibilities.
However, the risk looms in the back of the minds of fantasy geeks everywhere.
In an ongoing experts league that MonsterDraft is participating in, Smith went in the 3rd round as the 11th overall wide receiver in a points per reception league. This pick could turn out to be an extraordinary value if Delhomme stays healthy. Will he? Who knows, we hope he will as it is a lot more fun to watch Smith with a big “S” on his chest than to see him grinding it out with Kryptonite in his pocket.
Where should you take him? It all depends on your risk tolerance.
Thousands already do - see what you’re missing.
