Philip Rivers has had two decent years now playing the role of the stereotypical “pretty good QB with a great supporting cast.” He certainly hasn’t played poorly. He’s a proven winner, and he has gained a lot of respect from his team and from fans for gutting out the AFC championship game on a torn ACL.

His recovery seems to be going quickly, and he is expected to be fully ready for the season. There are those who predict a breakout year for the 5 year pro, or at least an increase in production—a natural progression, if you will.

Here’s what I expect: about 20 TDs and 2,300 yards, just like he did last year and the year before that.

He still has Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson on the outside (an OK tandem), and Antonio Gates causing matchup problems for any defense.

Rivers problem is that the Chargers don’t need him to be great. They need serviceable and, in Rivers, that’s exactly what they get.

As long as there’s the man they call LT lining up in the backfield, Norv and Co. would be even dopier than some people say they are to change the way this offense works. That means LT, LT, and more LT. If Rivers continues to complete 60% of his 28 throws per game, gets Antonio a TD every week or two, and manages not to become known as the biggest trash-talking jerk in the league, they will be overjoyed, not to mention in the playoffs and fighting for a Super Bowl berth yet again. And, truth be told, they don’t seem to mind him annoying opponents with constant chatter (although Champ Bailey is probably not the corner you want throwing darts at your picture – take LT and Gates out of that equation, and he has the potential of looking really bad really soon. But I digress).

The very likely scenario of Rivers’ production repeating his recent past is fine if you’re a Chargers fan, but it doesn’t really help the fantasy manager who owns him. In the end, his fantasy value is similar to his value to the Chargers. If you have a stacked team around him, he’s serviceable, but you will need more than Tomlinson and Gates as complements if you’re going to win your league.

In the fantasy realm, he will continue to be a good 2nd QB. That is it, and that is not going to change anytime soon.