Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets

May 19 2008

NFL Rock Star - Tony Romo is Fantasy Gold

Written by Tim Riley at 2:18 pm under Player Outlook

Tony RomoYou can’t post the kind of numbers that Tony Romo did in 2007 and expect to fly under the fantasy football radar the following season.

Romo topped 4,200 yards passing, dunked 36 touchdowns, all with a 64% completion percentage and a 97 QB rating on the season. That was good enough for 3rd best overall fantasy scoring output. In other words, you can call him Mister Romo - and he has officially arrived.

Not bad for a guy picked near the end of the seventh round in most drafts. But if anyone expects to get him there again - they need serious help putting a draft strategy together.

Romo leapfrogs every QB in the NFL - including Brees and Palmer - up to Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Brady is the best QB available - and anyone who doesn’t have him as the top QB is using more voodoo than logic in forming a draft board. Manning is another story. Peyton finished right behind Romo in overall scoring - and has a longer track record of success that makes him more difficult to bypass.

In NFL terms - Peyton is the better QB. In fact - if we’re just looking at things from a football perspective - Peyton is the best QB in the league. But we’re talking fantasy, and in that kingdom - Brady is King for now, and Romo may be heir to the throne.

Manning is dealing with some questions in his receiving corps. There were already questions as to whether Marvin Harrison was losing a step - now he has legal problems that require monitoring. In 2007 - it was TE Dallas Clark as the team’s 2nd leading receiver behind Reggie Wayne - and he only had 616 yards receiving. RB Joseph Addai came in 4th behind Anthony Gonzalez. Injury limited Harrison of course - but the depth chart is basically the same going into ’08. I’m in no way trying to imply that the Colts offense is going to fall flat in ’08. Manning is too good and his supporting cast is oozing with talent. What I am trying to suggest is that the Colts offensive stock may be on the decline.

Now consider Romo’s situation. He still has Owens of course - playing as well as ever - he’s at least the second best WR in the league. But perhaps more importantly - the Cowboys seem determined to put even more firepower into this already potent attack. The Cowboys also boast a TE as their second most productive receiver - but Jason Witten had an 1,100 yard season. He’s as pure a receiving threat as the league offers at TE. And Dallas is clearly in the market for another WR - and rumors have been circulating with names like Chris Henry and Joe Horn. If Terry Glenn can come back from injury and play - this will be a tough team to defend as it is. And the addition of rookie RB Felix Jones will help provide balance and take some pressure off the passing game.

As for Mister Romo. Although his resume says he is a 6th year player - the reality is that ’07 was just his second year. Those 2 years combine for a 96.5 QB rating - better than Manning or Brady in that same time frame. The translation of those numbers is this: Romo, despite his monster year, actually has pretty good upside. And that’s the factor that tips him into number 2 on my fantasy QB list. If Dallas lands another marquee receiver - I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him at the top of the QB list when the season ends.

Romo is a smart quarterback - but all the good ones are. He has a strong arm and uses the mobility he has to his advantage. He is easy to coach, and buys into the system the coordinator presents him with. Despite flopping in the playoffs - Dallas is still the team to beat in the NFC - and should be able to repeat the regular season success of ’07.

The bottom line: Romo is a blue chipper. Some owners may try to label him as untested - or point to playoff failures as justification to slip him out of the top 5 QB’s. Others may think the fuse on the TO time bomb is running short - or that Romo’s off field notoriety is something to be concerned about. Don’t buy into any of this. Keep Romo in the top 3 on your QB list - and expect smart owners to have him in mind for a second round selection. Third round would be a good value.

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