For years, Kevin Jones has been the Lions running back that one owner in your league would take a chance on, and for years, that owner has lived autumns of bitterness and regret.

That thousand-yard rookie season came with only 6 TDs - “but the touchdowns would come,” we thought. They didn’t, and the yardage dropped off, too.

Now, the injury-prone Jones is gone, released by the team that drafted him in the first round just four years ago. Enter Tatum Bell and his tantalizing speed.

He has always felt himself capable of being a number one guy, but he was barely used by offensive coordinator Mike Martz and his pass-happy schemes, even with Jones not healthy. Now that Martz has been replaced by new coaching blood that is dedicated to a successful running attack and a balanced offense, has the time finally come for Tatum?

The Lions are preparing to use the same zone blocking tactics made famous by the Broncos, the very team with which Bell has had success. Bell has stated his goal for the season as running for 15 TDs and 1,300 yards. If you watched Bell break loose for 8 TDs and nearly 1,000 yards in limited duty with the Broncos in 2005, you might be thinking he can hit or even exceed his goal.

Envisioning his tremendous speed working in the new offense, you may be tempted to be that owner who takes a chance on the Lions RB this season.

However, here is what I believe to be your best-case fantasy scenario concerning Tatum Bell: the new guy in your league (not you) wastes an early-round pick on him and starts him every week. Why, you ask?

The Broncos responded to his breakout year by giving him more opportunities, and he rewarded them with 5 fumbles, only two TDs, and a drop in yards per carry of almost a full yard. Anyone who has seen him in short-yardage situations has seen a consistent lack of ability to get those tough yards. He has a better chance of scoring from 50 yards out than from two if anybody shows up to tackle him.

Then, add to the mix rookie Kevin Smith - his potential is a whole other topic, but suffice it to say that he will be a big reason why Tatum is better left for the fantasy owner who isn’t you. The Detroit brass are liking what they see in their third round pick, and he could be their guy from the get-go.

If Tatum does begin the season getting his share of the carries, my crystal ball sees ineffectiveness and a couple of early fumbles putting him back where he spent the final 11 games of 2007, or at least greatly diminishing his role. He won’t be helping your fantasy team much while riding the pine, and it’s a lock that he won’t be in there for goal line situations.

I don’t want to seem anti-Tatum - there is a possibility that he shines this year, and I would be happy for him - I’m actually rooting for the guy. I don’t believe his so-called “weight issue” from mini-camp will have any bearing on the outcome of his season. I just think he is better suited for limited duty, and then only if he can hold on to the ball.

His potential may be up in the air for 2008, but I will guarantee you one thing - I won’t be the guy suffering through the season wishing I hadn’t taken that chance.