If Tom Brady had held a press conference at the beginning of the 2007 NFL season, boldly declaring his team was going to win ten games, few people would have taken notice.

Brady didn’t. Detroit Lions QB Jon Kitna did. And the snickering could be heard from every NFL city.

But after a surprising 6-2 start- his prediction looked more than plausible. It almost looked inevitable. The Lions first half effort was a beautiful occurrence for the Detroit fans. The stretch included beating the defending NFC champions (and division hated division rival) Chicago Bears twice.

Then came a 1-7 slide. A collapse so ugly it included a season ending loss to the Packers- a hated division rival that wasn’t even playing its starters.

And the snickering could be heard from every NFL city. And even some smaller suburbs.

The Lions hollow defense was a key factor in the abysmal season. The group played the league’s revolving door, and finished dead last in every meaningful defensive category. If you look closely at just how poorly they performed- seven wins on the year actually starts to look pretty good. The offense was no juggernaut- but they were better- finishing 19^th in the NFL rankings. On any team, both units feed into the success of the other- but in the Lions case, the defense- or lack thereof-  made sticking to an offensive game plan virtually impossible.

But we’re here to talk about the failed prognosticator. Never considered a top tier QB- Kitna has been solid over his eleven year career- but never spectacular. His longevity in the league seems more a result of being a respected guy in the huddle- and the ability to grasp most any offense on paper. What’s kept him from being any team’s long term answer at quarterback is inconsistency, poor decision making, and a below average arm.

The Lions- for now- have given Kitna what will effectively be his last chance to take a team to the next level as a starter. The last two years in Detroit- he’s tossed for over 4,000 yards a season, with better than 62% completion ratings in each. Of the seven wins the team had- a handful could arguably be contributed to Kitna’s solid game management. That’s the good news. The bad news is that in both of those years- he has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns (22 to 21 in ’06, 20 to 18 in ’07). Of the losses the team suffered- a handful were partly due to his streaky play, inability to threaten the secondary with a deep ball despite solid receiving weapons, and turnovers.

In most cases involving players with as much experience as Kitna has- a fantasy owner can simply look at season over season numbers to make a prediction for the following year. But in some cases (such as when Donovan McNabb got Terell Owens in 2004)- changes can make dramatic differences for a player. So will there be marked improvement from the Lions in ’08?

How do you like your predictions? Yes…with a but, or No…with a maybe?

The Lions haven’t made much effort to get better quickly. A March trade brought CB Leigh Bodden over from the Browns- sending a third round pick and wash-out WR Shaun Rogers away. Bodden will provide some badly needed help in the secondary- but is hardly the type of player to turn around a defense playing this bad. And aside from Bodden- the Lions seem to be content to re-sign their own players- or back-ups from other cities.

Things are equally murky on the other side of the ball. The team’s leading rusher- Kevin Jones- was cut. The second leading rusher- T.J Duckett- left via free agency. For now, that leaves Tatum Bell to carry the load- something he hasn’t done in his four year career. Bell has shown flashes of talent- but not enough to trust your entire running game with. Rumor has the Lions giving Ray Rice from Rutgers a long look with their second pick in the draft- but until they have a running back sign on the dotted line- it’s barely warrants consideration.

The only hope for the Lions offense to improve seems to be in the ever hovering, never landing potential of the receiving corps. Roy Williams has superstar written all over him- but missed four games in ’07. His short career is peppered with minor injuries, and now needs to prove he can stay healthy. Rookie Calvin Johnson had a solid freshman season- and although he might be better suited for a QB with a stronger arm- will almost certainly be a bigger threat with a year of experience under his belt. And the surprising Shaun McDonald, who led all Lion WR’s in yards, receptions, and TD’s- looks like he can help turn Detroit into an air powerhouse as a formidable slot man.

Which brings us back to Jon Kitna. For him to climb any higher on fantasy draft boards- the Lions would need to give owners some reason to believe that they are serious about making a playoff run. If the team does not make a considerable improvement- then why would Kitna? The running game is suspect, the defense won’t give the offense many opportunities, and Kitna is…well, he’s still Kitna. He will throw too many picks- and his lack of true arm strength will force a potentially high flying air attack to move in smaller increments up the field. The best reason to even consider Kitna on your board is that he will likely be forced to play catch up often, and that should lead to another chance to pass for 4,000+ yards. If that’s enough for you, then you can grab Kitna near the end of most drafts. For my money, he’s a long drop out of the top dozen fantasy QB’s- and I would prefer a David Garrard or Eli Manning in the same area of picks.