Jay Cutler has had one of those careers that seems longer than it actually is. Maybe it was being big name at the draft - and the subsequent selection to a team that just happen to be looking to replace a legend. Or maybe it was being on a team that had playoff potential - sitting the bench behind a struggling quarterback - and the crowd constantly chanting his name to convince the coach to put him in.

The reality is that Cutler enters ’08 as a third year player - and has only played one full NFL season. After a handful of games his rookie year in ‘06 - he was a solid starter when assuming the reigns in ’07.

The word that stands out on Cutler’s short resume is inconsistent. In 2007, he had non-consecutive games with excellent completion percentages of 74, 75, and 76. In between, he sprinkled in efforts of 54, 50, & 43 percent. His best QB rating of the season was a stellar 141 - but his worse was a nearly non-existent 32. His 20 TD’s were a solid sophomore effort. His 14 interceptions had him looking every bit the inexperienced passer that he is.

The inconsistency is not particularly alarming in a second year player - and the 9-7 record, while disappointing to some, proved he could manage a team from the huddle. Cutler finished 11^th among QB’s in most standard fantasy scoring systems - 12^th in the NFL for QB rating - and pocketed a healthy 3500 passing yards (10^th best in the league). There is every reason to think that Cutler will improve on those numbers - and on his league ranking.

That’s not to say his weaknesses should be ignored - or that he should get a free pass on games that he gave away. But his projection into 2008 shouldn’t be overly influenced by the failures most any second year player will experience.

Javon Walker was released - a move that weakens the WR corps - but one that didn’t seem to concern Cutler. That may be because Walker wasn’t a big part of the ’07 offense - missing the bulk of the season with a knee injury - but he was still the best home-run threat they would have fielded this year.

WR Brandon Marshall suffered an off-season injury - a ruthless attack by a fast food wrapper that resulted in serious lacerations to his arm and sliced tendons. He is not expected to be 100% by the start of training camp - but shouldn’t miss playing time. Marshall was the team’s leading receiver last year - an impressive 102 receptions with over 1300 yards. He’s the sole #1 now - and has all the skill to match or improve on the effort that landed him at #6 on the WR leader list. The injury shouldn’t slow him down much once he gets going. Though coaches don’t want to hear it - WR’s don’t need a lot of practice to do their job well - and if there is any stiffness or minor limitations in the arm - it won’t have as big an impact as it sounds.

The bigger concern with Marshall is that he doesn’t implode - a favorite pastime of NFL players these days. There have been off-field problems that indicate he could go either way - and Denver hopes his promise that he’s seen the error of his ways is for real.

Brandon Stokley was brought in to play the slot - but was forced into the role of a Y and did nicely. An Achilles injury cut his season 3 games short - but the Broncos signed him to an extension and his reliable - never die style will be a comfort for Cutler - and he will be productive. Rookie Eddie Royal is small (5’10”) - but lightning fast and athletic. He is still a rookie - but has the skills to offer a problem for defenses in spot duty.

As for the running game - it looks like Selvin Young and Travis Henry will be in a tandem situation - and although fantasy owners looking for a running back might be distressed by this - it’s good news for the Broncos offense and good news for Cutler. This offense has go power.

Which brings us back to Cutler - the straw that stirs the drink. In week 16 he looked like a community college cast-off, throwing 2 interceptions and no touchdowns as he stumbled through a loss to SD. In week 17, he looked every bit the replacement for the immortal #7 - and ready to take this team to the next level. So which Jay Cutler will show up in 2008?

Probably something in between.

To believe that Cutler will emerge in 2008 as a world beater is to ignore history and common sense. Players rarely improve in leaps and bounds. If they improve at all - which I think Cutler will - it is more likely to be in baby steps - reaching a crescendo at the end of a season and carrying into the following camp. Having said that - another year of gelling with Marshall - a full season effort from the team’s running backs - a new stud offensive lineman - a second training camp - all these things lead Cutler’s stock rising.

The news of Cutler’s diabetes shouldn’t concern anyone too much. Cutler does have the most serious type of the disease - the type that requires daily insulin injections - however his support staff will be top notch and he is expected to join the ranks of athletes like Wade Wilson who managed the disease while enjoying lengthy, productive careers. If anything - it looks like the disease being undiagnosed and untreated may have caused some problems for Cutler last year - who suffered weakness and weight loss as the year moved on. Now that his health is being addressed properly - he can get all his focus back on football.

If you buy into his improvement quotient - a top ten finish should surprise no one - he was nearly there last year. If you like Shanahan and the Denver coaching staff - and think Cutler’s work ethic and smarts will catapult his progress forward - then you may be thinking top five. In ’07 Cutler left the draft boards - on average - after the tenth round - the 16^th QB selected overall. His performance last season will move that up by at least five slots - but it’s hard to say right now how that translates to rounds. It will be each individual fantasy manager’s projection on Cutler that will ultimately dictate if they feel confident going into ’08 with him as their 1 - or only as a strong 2 with big upside. I think passing on him past the 9^th QB drafted is a mistake.