At the beginning of the 2007 season - I did my best to steer fantasy owners towards RB Jamal Lewis. I forecasted him as a top ten running back, and urged owners to pass on players like Frank Gore and Steven Jackson to get him on their roster. I predicted he would rush for 1,304 yards, score 11 times, and lead the Browns to a surprising 10-6 record.

Okay - part of that statement is true and part of it is not. Jamal Lewis really did accumulate those yards in leading the Browns ground attack - making him the 5^th most productive back in the league. He really was the 6^th best running back in most standard fantasy scoring systems - and he really was a steal where most owners selected him - around 44^th overall in most drafts. The only part that wasn’t true was that I expected any of it to happen.

Not many people did. In 2004 - fresh off a 2,000 yard season - injury limited Lewis to 12 games and barely 1,000 yards. In 2005 - fresh off a spring prison sentence - Lewis appeared a shell of his former self - and limped through a 906 yard, 3.4 yards per carry, 3 touchdown effort - giving credence to rumors that his career was brought to an end by off field problems. 2006, his final year in Baltimore - did little to dispel those reports. 314 carries yielded only 1,132 yards - a paltry 3.6 yards per carry.

But a new town and a new team in 2007 seemed to breathe new life into Lewis. He proved not only that he could be productive again - but productive as a work horse - carrying the ball 298 times - 7^th highest in the league. He moved the chains 58 times - an NFL 6^th best.

A new contract with the Browns was his reward for helping the team to a league 10^th best rushing attack. So at 29 years old - he will be asked to continue pounding through defensive lines with a famously brutal running style - trying to guide a team desperate for some playoff success.

To project Lewis properly into 2008 requires putting 2007 into perspective. At the risk of taking the air out of Jamal’s celebration balloons, his 2007 season was a little more surprising than it was stellar. That’s not to dismiss his productivity - he was an excellent ball carrier for Cleveland, but his 4.4 yards per carry was a long way off from the 5.3 average he had in 2003 - and his high 2007 rankings have to be put into context. 2007 was - by any measurable standard - an off year for running backs. In 2006 - six running backs rushed for 1,500 yards or better. In 2005 and 2004 it was five. In 2007 - no one did. So Jamal’s 1,300 yards might have looked a little more impressive than it actually was.

While we have to ask if Jamal can repeat his 2007 production - we might first ask if studs like Steven Jackson and Larry Johnson will have down years again. We might also consider the situations of upcoming players - like Maurice Jones-Drew, Laurence Maroney, and Reggie Bush. In other words - is the sixth best running back always the sixth best running back?

Cleveland is a good situation right now for Lewis. The Browns have a balanced, uncharacteristically powerful offense going into 2008 - at least on paper. And although he will be a work horse - he won’t be asked to carry the entire offense as he often was in Baltimore. 29 years old isn’t youthful - but it certainly isn’t old man territory either. Lewis finished the year healthy - and perhaps more importantly - he finished the season strong. His 2007 wasn’t a case of a few big games early and then coasting to respectable numbers. Four of his last six games were over 100 yards - and his 3 highest per game averages came in the last 4 weeks. This is not the look of a tired player who wears down in the second half of a season.

Lewis is a bit of a throwback - a bruising power style - 25 carry per game load that has fallen out of favor in the modern NFL. His type of running attack can take a toll on a player’s body - and lead to an early retirement. Coupled with his history of down years - and shady off field behavior - Lewis will always need to be considered a risk. Not much of a factor in the passing game - and never much of an endzone hound - Jamal has virtually no upside. He isn’t going to miraculously gain a step - and he isn’t going to find some new niche in the offense that leads to a new avenue of fantasy points. If Lewis has an up year - it will mean very similar numbers to 2007. If the players who were off in ’07 rebound in ‘08 - it might push Jamal down a few spots - but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he isn’t a stellar number two- or even a solid one.

The key to Lewis’ value is in his carries. Lewis will get the ball - on average - 20 times a game. This is of tremendous value to his owners. Even if the scoring system doesn’t award points for carries. It’s about opportunity. If the Browns stay in games - they will run the ball. If they run the ball - it will be Lewis getting the carries. That equates to yardage and opportunity to find the endzone. When looking at players like Jones-Drew, Travis Henry, or Reggie Bush - and now possibly players like Willie Parker and Earnest Graham - there will be concerns about how many carries the other running backs on the team will be getting. Tandem is the new buzzword. Getting your hands on a full time, 20 carry starter can be a ticket to success.

Lewis can’t be overlooked in 2008 - and will certainly be taken earlier than he was in 2007. However, despite a top 6 finish last year, he is not quite in my top 10. Slots on my board are filling up with names like Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, and Frank Gore - who I feel are ready to bounce back from down years - and don’t have the deep down side Lewis might. Still - after proving me wrong last year - I do have room on my team for Lewis as my number 2 RB - and would go confidently forward with Jamal and my first choice week after week.