Jul 01 2008
Aaron Rodgers - Coming out of the Shadow
What do Jay Fiedler, Brian Griese, Todd Collins, and Quincy Carter all have in common?
Well, other than the fact that many people don’t know who these former starting quarterbacks are, they all have shared the same impossible task of trying to replace a Hall of Fame quarterback. Respectively, Dan Marino, John Elway, Jim Kelly, and Troy Aikman were simply irreplaceable, and their successors learned that the hard way as they bumbled along into becoming permanent backups, journeymen, and in one case, a league washout.
Now, former Cal standout and 2005 first round pick Aaron Rodgers faces the same challenge in Green Bay. Rodgers will be taking over for Brett Favre, a definite Hall of Fame quarterback, and a local favorite in Wisconsin.
The question is whether or not he’ll be up to the task. History says he won’t have success replacing a legend, but there are many things to consider in this unique situation. Rodgers has three years of experience learning the Packers’ offensive system and watching Favre up close in games and practices. Rodgers also was highly touted coming out of college and has all the physical traits you look for in a starting quarterback. He can make all the throws necessary for the offense, and he’s mobile enough in the pocket to avoid the pass rush and still be able to step into his throws.
Additionally, unofficially at 6′2 and 225 lbs, he’s got enough height to see over the line and enough bulk to take a hit. He also seems to have developed leadership on the team, as he appears to have quiet, yet commanding presence in the huddle, and he’s been doing his best to build a bond with his teammates on and off the field.
It appears as though Rodgers is doing everything the right way in his quest to win over the hearts of Green Bay Packer fans and players, but will he deliver on the field when it really counts? Rodgers certainly has looked the part in extremely brief appearances behind perennial iron man Favre.
In a game against 2007 NFC East champs, the Dallas Cowboys last season, Rodgers rallied the Packers from a 17 point deficit to a narrow three points, before Dallas poured it on late and won 37-27. In that game, he threw for over 200 yards and a score, with no interceptions. He did however show a propensity to hold the ball a little too long and was sacked three times. This is a common trait with inexperienced quarterbacks, and there’s no reason at this point to think that Rodgers won’t be able to learn to get rid of the ball a little quicker as he gains valuable experience this season.
Rodgers has had very little experience for other teams to plan against. However, even if he gets off to a great start in his first season as an NFL starting quarterback, it’ll be interesting to see how he handles teams beginning to prepare against him. After all, the Dallas Cowboys last year had planned for the gun-slinging style of Brett Favre, when Rodgers stepped in unexpectedly.
This season will be all about Rodgers identifying himself as a player, finding his style, and then having to work through the different defensive schemes he will face as the season progresses. He will have to adjust to the idea that his division match-ups will change dramatically, as the Minnesota Vikings defense he faces in Week 1 will be drastically different than the one he faces in Week 10.
Rodgers does benefit from having been brought along, similar to the way that guys such as Steve McNair, Carson Palmer, and Phillip Rivers were. However, it would be foolish to think that his inexperience is a complete non-issue when projecting his 2008 season. The biggest concern with Rodgers other than his lack of experience is his injury history. Rodgers broke his foot in November of 2006 and missed the remainder of the season. Then in 2007, he tore his hamstring.
We don’t know what to expect of him from a health perspective, but thus far he’s had two serious injuries in three seasons backing up the most durable quarterback in history. This is a big concern, and is also probably a contributing factor to why the Packers drafted Louisville QB Brian Brohm in the second round this year. While Rodgers is in no danger of losing his job to Brohm, it’s obvious that the Green Bay brass were concerned enough to provide some insurance behind the young signal caller.
I believe that his inability to stay healthy thus far in his career was a contributing factor to that move. One final thing to consider with Rodgers is that he has a great supporting cast. He has a great pair of bookend tackles to protect him, a tough budding running back in Ryan Grant to take some of the pressure off of him, and a slew of receivers to throw to, including Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, promising James Jones, and fleet-footed rookie Jordy Nelson.
He also has a defense that will provide him the opportunity to manage games, rather than trying to win them solely on the strength of his arm. Had Brett Favre returned this season, the Packers would’ve been considered definite contenders and he would’ve been tabbed an excellent first option in fantasy leagues. Without a doubt, Aaron Rodgers is in the best possible position to succeed.
So what can be expected from Rodgers this year? I think he’s a strong-armed kid with a lot of talent. I think he’s got the leadership and intangibles that you look for in a starting quarterback. I think that when he’s on the field, he’ll produce very good numbers and help his team win… when he’s on the field. Unfortunately, his injury history concerns me entirely too much to take a gamble on him as my top fantasy quarterback. I believe I’ll take the same approach to Rodgers in 2008 as the Packers have taken. I’ll keep him in mind as a starter, perhaps as the 10th to 15th QB off the board, but I’ll need to make sure that I pick up a capable backup just in case.
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