OVERALL FANTASY IMPACT: Below Average

OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK: The Bills major offseason acquisitions, through trade (DT Marcus Stroud), free agency (LB Kawika Mitchell) and the draft (CB Leodis McKelvin) were all aimed at the defensive side.

The offense will have to improve from within via the young players the coaches are trusting, but most Bills skill players seem like weak fantasy options.

QUARTERBACK: Trent Edwards appears to be the man for now, since the coaching staff seems to have lost all faith in J.P. Losman. The addition of rookie James Hardy gives Edwards a big target that he lacked last season, but that’s not enough to suggest that Edwards will improve dramatically from the 7 TD passes (4 of which came in one game against Miami) in 10 games he posted a year ago.

The ironic thing is that Losman is probably a better fantasy option with his gunslinger mentality and running ability, but neither should be considered as anything more than a stopgap fantasy option.

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It’s not a surprise when an unknown name rises to the top of the fantasy scoring leaders. It happens almost every year. Though the league will always be separated into back-up, quality, and superstar players - every player on a roster has a reason for being there - and that means they all have the potential to do something special.

Still, when it does happen, it’s difficult not to ask “Where did that guy come from?”

In ’07, the question was directed at Cleveland Browns back-up QB Derek Anderson - an unknown castoff from Baltimore clinging to his NFL life. In week 13 of 2006 - Anderson filled in for an injured Charlie Frye and led his team to a exciting OT victory. But three losses later (including a four interception effort against Tamp Bay), the return of Frye for the final week, and the subsequent drafting of top prospect Brady Quinn in the 2007 draft - the NFL tale of Derek Anderson seemed to be at an end.

But the planets aligned themselves properly for Anderson to get another shot. Rookie Brady Quinn held out in the early season - and wasn’t ready to start - particularly for a coach like Romeo Crennel. Then Charlie Frye played so badly in the first quarter of the season opener - that he wasn’t just pulled from the game - he was traded to Seattle the next day. The reigns were handed over to Anderson - presumably just to keep the spot warm until Brady was ready to go. Continue Reading »

The Miami Dolphins are in the unique position of being able to draft virtually the best available player who fits their scheme. However, unlike a team such as the San Diego Chargers who have this luxury due to a lack of any one glaring need, the Dolphins simply have so many needs that any good player will be able to contribute. That being said, here’s a look at what the biggest needs are for the Dolphins and how they might address them.

Before I get into that however, I feel I must address the Dolphins quarterback situation. Miami drafted a quarterback in the second round last year, former BYU standout John Beck. Beck may have had a rough rookie season, but he joins a long list of rookie quarterbacks who have struggled that includes John Elway, Steve Young, Drew Bledsoe, and Peyton Manning. While I’m not so bold as to compare Beck to those players, the point is that it is simply too early to judge Beck at this point in his career, and with so many needs at so many positions, coupled with the lack of a true can’t miss type of prospect at quarterback in this year’s draft, the Dolphins cannot afford to ignore the depth at other positions by taking a chance on another quarterback in the early rounds. This draft has depth at WR and CB, which are two high priority needs for the Dolphins, and they must address those needs with their two second round picks. While Bill Parcells may or may not agree with me, I believe that it would be unwise to draft a quarterback early, therefore that will not be how I see the Dolphins addressing one of their needs. Continue Reading »

Here’s my unique twist on the millions of NFL draft analyses out there: The first two rounds of the draft, with each pick what I would do if I was running each team and an explanation of my thought process.

Some of the ground rules:

- I’m allowed to make trades that I feel would benefit both teams, making this a little bit more realistic.

- While I don’t have time to watch film on every prospect (although if Todd McShay is reading this, I’m available if you need an intern) I base my judgments on my own analysis of team needs and reading various scouting reports around the Internet.

- The salary considerations of signing all my picks are of minor importance.

- When computing values for trades, I used the terrific guide published in ESPN the Magazine’s April 21 issue for the values of each pick.

- I’m biased in favor of adding value to certain positions (both lines, cornerback) and devaluing others (running back, quarterback, linebacker). I also tend to believe that bad teams are better off adding multiple good players, not one splashy great one.

- I’ll do an analysis of quarterback situations leaguewide with fantasy implications once the dust has settled after the draft.

OK, I’m on the clock… Continue Reading »

With the first pick in the 2008 NFL draft…

Those are the only words I can guarantee you will hear on April 26th - because not only is the first player to be selected still a mystery, I’m not so sure the team that currently holds the coveted pick will be making the selection when the time comes.

At the moment, that pick belongs to the Miami Dolphins. In 2008, that means King of Football operations Bill Parcells and his hand picked head coach Tony Sparano will be working the war room. Assuming they don’t trade the pick, a team with as many glaring holes to fill as the Dolphins have could realistically take any one of a handful of talented athletes with the top slot.

Some coaches say the best rule to follow is to simply take the best player on the board. If the Dolphins did that, then Darren McFadden, RB from Arkansas, would be donning the aqua and orange. And he’s not a terrible fit there. Ronnie Brown has been less then impressive - compiling only average numbers and failing to play sixteen games in any of his three seasons. No doubt - Brown had the chips stacked against him in south Florida - but combined with the fact that he is coming off a serious knee injury, the Dolphins at the very least must have McFadden on their radar. And what a blip he makes. McFadden is - as they say - the total package. Speed, quickness, vision, balance, and a hint of power that comes from a solid core. Game breaker should be tattooed on his back. McFadden is as close to a can’t miss prospect as the draft offers. Continue Reading »

There has been much talk about Brandon Marshall’s recent injury resulting in damage to an artery, vein, nerve, and tendons in his right arm. Marshall has reported that he slipped on a MacDonald’s wrapper while horsing around and put his hand through a television.

In initial reports, no mention was made of the horseplay, just that he had slipped on the wrapper. Had that been the full accounting for the story, it likely would have qualified as one of the strangest accidents involving an NFL player. Marshall and some of his teammates at first made light of the injury, before the extent of the injury was publicly known.

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Ah, the enigma that is Javon Walker. Once the go-to target of a certain Green Bay quarterback (what was his name?), he signs a big money deal to go to Denver, where he again thrives for a period of time. His return from a serious injury to become the man who could complement Rod Smith and even take his place as the number one receiver was exactly what Broncos’ fans and fantasy owners who took a chance on him had hoped for. Two years later, he again finds himself looking to prove that he can return from an injury-riddled season with a new team. Now that it’s silver and black instead of orange and blue, youngster JaMarcus Russell instead of veteran Jake Plummer, what can be expected of him in the coming season?

I will tell you this: he will not fall very far in any of my drafts. He proved two years ago the kind of impact he can have on a new team by turning in a 1K-yard season as a big play receiver. He shook off serious injury to put up more than respectable numbers that season.

A dynamic Brandon Marshall had an impact on Walker’s potential place in Denver’s offense for 2008. In fact, his claim to be traded or released based on that was completely believable; but I don’t buy it. Continue Reading »

OK, I know you’re all probably chuckling at that title, but it got your attention, right? The Vikings clearly needed help at the receiver position, and Bernard Berrian has been productive in Chicago for the past few years on a team with quarterback issues of its own. And any addition to a group that was led by Bobby Wade has to help.

But the fact is that Berrian joins Sydney Rice and Aundrae Ellison on the Viking depth chart, giving them three guys who really like to run fly patterns. What the Vikings really could have used to boost their passing attack is a pass-receiving tight end, but those guys are hard to find.

The fact remains though that Berrian will likely be hamstrung if Tavaris Jackson is still the QB. Brad Childress stuck by him last year, and then watched as he failed miserably in the games the Vikes desperately needed to complete their run to the playoffs. Continue Reading »

With the combine over and the top names in Free Agency already signed, it’s a great time to look toward the NFL Draft coming up April 26-27. The following is my first round mock draft, reflecting partially who I think teams should pick, and partially who I think teams will pick. Obviously things change every day in the NFL, and trades, signings, and injuries will have a big influence on the way things play out. Be that as it may, here is a look at what might happen during that last week of April.

A fantasy outlook on the offensive players is included as well. Continue Reading »