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Rookies and fantasy football generally don’t mix. Nothing beats a proven track record and a solidified role in a team’s offense to guide a draft day decision- and of course a rookie has neither of those things- at least not in the NFL. Year after year, picks are wasted on the hottest young player who isn’t quite ready to make a significant fantasy impact. Please see Reggie Bush- circa 2006.

Of course, not every rookie is just a tackling dummy in his first season. Some make decent contributions to their team- some even flat out shine. Please see the Vikings freshman star running back Adrian Peterson circa 2007- who delivered a stellar 1,300 yard, 12 TD effort- landing him 13th overall on most scoring lists.

Look closer at 2007, however, and you need to travel outside the top 50 to find another rookie on the list (Marshawn Lynch). Then keep going until you’re nearly outside the top 100 to find a third (Ryan Grant).

Heading into your draft, you might be well served by remembering two things: 1- Not many rookies make a huge impact in their first year. 2- Rookie running backs tend to have a little more luck then rookie QB’s, WR’s, or TE’s.

Now with those general rules out of the way- let’s take a look at the 2008 rookie class and see if anyone there might be worthy of a draft pick- or at least a look on the waiver wire. Continue Reading »

Overall Fantasy Impact: Below Average

Offensive Outlook: Tampa Bay might have been a playoff team last year, but for fantasy football purposes, they were nothing to write home about. They were 18th in the league in points and yards.

Things don’t look much better this year. Although the offensive line is coming together nicely, there are very few explosive skill position players on hand.

2008 should be more of the same from the Bucs.

QUARTERBACKS: All of the Brett Favre drama aside, Jeff Garcia does a nice job for what Tampa asks of him. He doesn’t turn it over and he’s efficent. That’s all well and fine, but it doesn’t do you any good as a fantasy owner. With just 13 TD passes in 13 games in ‘07 and 7 games under 200 yards, Garcia, at age 38, has outlived his fantasy relevance. He’s strictly back-up material.

Should Favre join the Bucs, things would get interesting. It’s doubtful that he would put up QB1 numbers in a new offense, but he would be worth a spot on fantasy rosters for spot starting duty with upside.

There are approximately 74 quarterbacks on the Tampa roster vying to be Garcia’s back-up, but none are worthy of a look-see in this pedestrian offense. Continue Reading »

Lee Evans had an extremely disappointing fantasy 2007.

He had a couple of good games that made his overall numbers seem slightly better than nasty, but take away his two highest yardage games, and he averaged a painful 39 yards in the other fourteen.

That doesn’t help win fantasy football games.

Add to that a meager 5 TDs for the season, and you can see why he spent some of his personal time in the off-season trying to improve his chemistry with QB Trent Edwards.

More than anything, his numbers appear so dismal because we must consider where he was drafted in most fantasy leagues last year. Following a 1,292-yard season and an average of 8 TDs in each of his first three campaigns, Evans went relatively quickly on most draft boards in 2007.

He won’t go so fast this time around. Continue Reading »

Overall Fantasy Impact: Above Average

Offensive Outlook: After a terrible start, the Saints offense got rolling again last year and ended 4th in yards, although they finished tied for 12th in points.

Those red-zone problems should be alleviated by the addition of Jeremy Shockey at tight end and the return of Deuce McAllister at running back.

The concern here is that there might be too much talent to go around. McAllister, Shockey, Marques Colston, and Reggie Bush all have to share one football, and it’s unrealistic that they can all put up huge numbers at the same time.

Nonetheless, it’s a nice problem for the Saints to have.

QUARTERBACKS: Drew Brees actually improved upon his numbers from 2006 when the Saints were the NFL’s top story. That’s amazing considering he had just one TD pass after the first four games. At year’s end he was again among the league’s best with 4,423 yards (2nd) and 28 TDs (tied for 6th). With all the weapons at his disposal and considering he’s still in his prime, the possibility is there for Brees to ascend to even loftier fantasy heights. He should be considered as early as Round 3. Continue Reading »

Overall Fantsy Impact: Above Average

Offensive Outlook: No team in the NFL has better potential to turn it around offensively this year than Carolina.

After an awful showing in ‘07, the Panthers drafted Jonathan Stewart in the first round to boost their running game, then added receivers D.J. Hackett and Mushin Muhammad to take pressure off Steve Smith.

But the biggest addition will be the return to health of Jake Delhomme, who missed the season’s final 13 games last year. With Delhomme behind center, the Panthers might just go from punchless to powerful.

QUARTERBACKS: The really devastating part of Delhomme’s shoulder injury last year was that it came after he had gotten off to a blistering start with 8 TD passes in the first three games. He’s been good for an average of about 3,500 yards and 24 TDs since becoming the Panther starter, which are solid fantasy numbers. With so many weapons at his disposal and some weak NFC South defenses (save Tampa Bay) to face, the possibility is there for Delhomme to have a career year and vault into the Top 5 Fantasy QBs. Continue Reading »

You’ve dusted off your brown, brimmed hat and hung a bull whip from your belt. The clues for your quest can’t be found on ancient tablets or the burnt impressions on a Nazi soldier’s palm- but you forge ahead, undaunted. You aren’t searching for the lost ark or a crystal skull- but something even more elusive.

The fantasy breakthrough player.

A player who may not have the big name- or the spectacular season on his record- but one who offers tremendous upside. The type of potential that could lead to the coveted championship trophy you’ve been dreaming of. A player whose stars are in perfect alignment for a big year.

Whether you’re an Indiana Jones fan or not- you probably picked up on my not so subtle point. Finding a breakthrough player can be a lot like looking for lost treasure. The signs can be confusing- and X never, ever, marks the spot.

Still- hunting for just this type of player is what the later rounds of a fantasy draft are for- and they are out there season after season without fail.

Derek Anderson of the Cleveland Browns is a great example from 2007- however, few people could have seen his potential at draft time considering how deeply he was buried in the depth chart. To draft a breakthrough player you need some signs.

While some owners are grabbing the tried and true player- a safe pick that might not deliver huge points, but has a dependable consistency- you may be looking for the steal of the draft. So without further adieu- let’s take a look at a few players who might fill the bill. (NOTE: Rookies don’t make this list)

Patrick Crayton- WR- Cowboys. Crayton is flying below the radar in 2008 drafts- and maybe with good reason. The Cowboys have been very public in their search for a second wide receiver- proof that they are not sold on Crayton’s ability. A big drop against the Giants in the playoffs had everyone forgetting Romo’s fumbled snap the year before. And he plays opposite one of the league’s best WR, best TE, and a powerful running game. So is Crayton really worthy of a fantasy draft pick? Consider that 2007 was Crayton’s best year in a four year career. He’s not very young at age (29) but fairly young in NFL experience. His ’07 is proof he is moving in the right direction- and that Romo has some confidence in him. And his seven TD’s while playing third fiddle is worth noticing. Dallas has a powerful offense- but had no real luck in getting a big name number two. With Terry Glenn having been released- everything seems to be in place for Crayton to improve on decent ’07 numbers- and possibly capitalize in a big way on the attention defenses will be giving to the bigger stars on the team. Consider him for a late round grab. Continue Reading »

Overall Fantasy Impact: Below Average

The Falcons made major changes in the offseason, both in personnel and on the coaching staff, so it’s hard to judge their fantasy prospects by last year.

They’ve got a new starting running back (Michael Turner) this year and, quite possibly, a rookie starting quarterback (Matt Ryan).

It’s hard to get too excited just yet though, until we have some sort of sample size to judge.

Be very cautious about relying too much on any individual Falcon to carry a big load for you this season. Continue Reading »

Overall Fantasy Impact: Average

Offensive Outlook: Despite the league’s finest rushing attack, the Vikings ended in the middle of the pack in scoring.

The obvious reason: A pitiful passing attack that was 29th out of 32 NFL teams.

The addition of Bernard Berrian helps, but the onus for the passing game still falls on Tarvaris Jackson.

And if he doesn’t come through, how long until defenses lock down on Adrian Peterson, the Vikings lone fantasy stud? Continue Reading »

A good tight end can make or break a fantasy season. Of course the critical word there is “good.”

Most leagues have a 10 or 12 team format- and usually a starting slot for a tight end. But finding 10 or 12 consistently productive tight ends is not an easy task.

Consider that only two tight ends finished in the top one hundred fantasy scorers in 2007- and not the good half. In most standard scoring systems, Jason Witten was 91st overall, Antonio Gates was 97th.

Selecting a tight end might be an afterthought if not for the fact that most leagues have a mandatory starting TE slot. The position must be given it’s due attention. Players that can produce points every week can be the difference between a win and a loss. An unproductive player who goes weeks without scoring can become a drain on an otherwise solid roster. Continue Reading »

Overall Fantasy Impact: Above Average

Offensive Outlook: Fantasy players shouldn’t be asking the question, “Will Brett Favre return?” They should be asking, “Does it matter?”

The Packers were 2nd in yards and 4th in points last year, and if Aaron Rodgers takes over, he inherits the powerful running attack, bruising offensive line, and a deep and talented receiving corps.

Whoever is under center should be directing one of the league’s finest offenses, and that’s really all fantasy players need to know.

QUARTERBACKS: Favre had an amazing season in 2007, cutting back on the mistakes that had dogged him the previous few seasons.

He was among the league’s best in yards passing (4th) and TDs (tied for 6th), and he would be worthy of a Fantasy starting spot if he returns.

Rodgers is an unknown commodity, although he played well in a relief appearance against Dallas last year. After three years of watching the offense, he should be more than ready to go. But, since fantasy players have little to go on, anyone who drafts him would be wise to take another solid option at the position as insurance. Continue Reading »