Offensive Outlook: The Raiders are an extremely hard team to gauge entering the 2008 season.

So many newcomers are playing key roles on the offensive side of the ball that it’s hard to say who will be the productive fantasy players and who will be forgotten men.

One certainty is that the JaMarcus Russell era is beginning, and that’s cause for excitement for fantasy players hoping he’s the next dynamic quarterback to come down the pike. Throw in first-round running back Darren McFadden, and you can see why the Raiders will be fun to watch in ‘08.

QUARTERBACKS: The Raiders let Russell sit for most of his rookie season after he signed late. He got a chance to start the season finale and threw for 224 yards and a TD. That’s all you have to go on right now, so watch the preseason carefully. Russell likely will take his lumps this season, but his electric talent will shine through at times. He’s strictly fantasy back-up material to start the season, although he might be useful later in the season when he starts to get comfortable.

None of a bunch of possible back-ups (Andrew Walter, Marques Tuiasasopo, Sam Keller) are worth a look even should Russell miss time with injury.

RUNNING BACKS: This could be a case where the Raiders have a powerful running attack without having a standout fantasy running back. That’s because McFadden, Justin Fargas, and Michael Bush could all see significant time. Fargas is coming off a breakthrough season in his fifth year in the league, in which he rumbled for 1,009 yards. But McFadden wasn’t drafted that high to sit. A scenario like the Vikings had last year would be ideal, but it’s doubtful that the Raider duo will produce numbers quite that high. Look for Fargas to have more yards while McFadden comes out on top in scores. Both would be OK as No.2 fantasy backs, but you’d really have a luxury if you could get one as your No. 3.

Where does that leave Bush? If one of the top two runners should get hurt, the Raiders are very high on the former Louisville star who sat out all of his rookie season but is now ready to roll. He should be on your radar toward the end of the draft. Former starter Lamont Jordan is likely headed out of town.

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS: A combination of injury and off-the-field concerns make Javon Walker too risky to draft very high. He had a blistering start last year in Denver before the injury bugaboo got him again, and he showed no life when he returned from the injury down the stretch. I wouldn’t take on a chance on him unless I already had two, preferably three solid receivers on my roster.

Ronald Curry is more likely to be the Raiders top receiver again, and if Russell develops, that could mean a career season for him. He’s not explosive enough to be considered fantasy starter material though. The sleeeper is Drew Carter, whose numbers have improved in each of his three seasons despite being in Carolina where Steve Smith sucked up most of the passes. It’s not inconceivable that Carter racks up a bunch of scores, since he’s the best equipped to run down the long passes of Russell.

Considering he was a 21-year-old rookie, Zach Miller’s 444 yards and 3 TDs at tight end weren’t bad at all. He should benefit from a steadier QB situation, and should produce good enough numbers to make him a high-end fantasy back-up at the position.

1. Chad Johnson to the Washington Redskins for a second round pick in the 2008 draft. Ocho Cinco has an all pro quarterback and plays in a system in which he has proved effective. Though recently he has changed his tune, he spent most of the summer demanding a trade and avoiding OTAs. A trade would have been a great way to deflate Johnson’s ego. It would have added fantasy value to Jason Campbell and T.J. Houshmanzadah. It would also have given an unknown receiver like Jerome Simpson or Marcus Maxwell a chance to be a sleeper candidate.

2. Roy Williams (the one from Detroit) to the Philadelphia Eagles for Lito Sheppard. Williams would have been Donovan McNabb’s first legitimate wide receiver threat since T.O. left. As a Lion, Williams had some statistical success with Jon Kitna throwing him passes. Mike Martz is gone, and he took a large number of pass attempts with him, so Williams will likely see a small drop in his numbers. Moving to another pass oriented attack in Philly, with a veteran signal caller, would likely have pushed Williams up many draft boards. There would be some pressure taken off Brian Westbrook, but he, McNabb, and Williams would have seen a rise in their fantasy value.

3. Jeremy Shockey to the New Orleans Saints for a third round pick and Eric Johnson. His presence would have been great for Drew Brees, who helped put Antonio Gates on the map. It is hard to imagine Brees having better numbers then last season, but he did start slow. A big time talent at tight end could have ended his slump much sooner. Marques Colston might have lost a couple of TD catches, but another legitimate receiving threat could have led to less double teams and more yards.

4, Chris Simms to the Chicago Bears for a deep dish pizza. There is some history of the Bear and Bucs swapping signal callers, though little fantasy value in those prior deals. I do not think this one would have had much impact either, but it would be nice to not have to rank Rex Grossman among starting QBs. The Bears have question marks at every skill position, so why not add another unproven quantity to the mix?

4a. Any other quarterback to the Bears for a Chicago style hot dog. Chad Pennington, J.P. Losman, and Sage Rosenfels all come to mind as players who will most likely be riding the bench for another team this season. Did I mention, it would be nice to not have to rank Rex Grossman among starting QBs

5. Anquan Boldin to the Dallas Cowboys for one of their first round picks in 2008. A legitimate number two opposite Terrell Owens might push Tony Romo ahead of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on some draft boards. In keeper leagues, both Romo and Boldin would be great values based on where they were drafted last season. While Boldin’s numbers would not approach the 100 catches he had in Arizona in 2005, another 70 catch, 800 yard, 8 touchdown performance would be very likely. T.O. and Jason Witten would likely see a statistical decrease from last season.

6. Jason Taylor to the New York Giants for a turn on the catwalk. Perfect for Taylor’s dreams of getting into acting and a suitable replacement for the retired Michael Strahan. It would not improve the Giants defense overall fantasy value, but would have given them the same bookend pass rushers that led to so much success last year. Given the aggressive scheme they use in New York, Taylor would have seen a big jump in value for any league that awards points to individual defensive players.

7. Adam “Don’t call me PacMan” Jones to the Dallas Cowboys for a forth round pick. Drama in Big D should be the name of the soap opera that is the Cowboys. They would have had another cast member and emerging storyline. What other team has such high expectations going into 2008, but is equally poised for a melt down from within?

WAIT– he did get traded to Dallas? Maybe there is something to this fantasy football thing after all, stay tuned.

Have your own fantasy dream trades? Let me know what they are by email.

Well, other than the fact that many people don’t know who these former starting quarterbacks are, they all have shared the same impossible task of trying to replace a Hall of Fame quarterback. Respectively, Dan Marino, John Elway, Jim Kelly, and Troy Aikman were simply irreplaceable, and their successors learned that the hard way as they bumbled along into becoming permanent backups, journeymen, and in one case, a league washout.

Now, former Cal standout and 2005 first round pick Aaron Rodgers faces the same challenge in Green Bay. Rodgers will be taking over for Brett Favre, a definite Hall of Fame quarterback, and a local favorite in Wisconsin.

The question is whether or not he’ll be up to the task. History says he won’t have success replacing a legend, but there are many things to consider in this unique situation. Rodgers has three years of experience learning the Packers’ offensive system and watching Favre up close in games and practices. Rodgers also was highly touted coming out of college and has all the physical traits you look for in a starting quarterback. He can make all the throws necessary for the offense, and he’s mobile enough in the pocket to avoid the pass rush and still be able to step into his throws.

Additionally, unofficially at 6′2 and 225 lbs, he’s got enough height to see over the line and enough bulk to take a hit. He also seems to have developed leadership on the team, as he appears to have quiet, yet commanding presence in the huddle, and he’s been doing his best to build a bond with his teammates on and off the field.

It appears as though Rodgers is doing everything the right way in his quest to win over the hearts of Green Bay Packer fans and players, but will he deliver on the field when it really counts? Rodgers certainly has looked the part in extremely brief appearances behind perennial iron man Favre.

In a game against 2007 NFC East champs, the Dallas Cowboys last season, Rodgers rallied the Packers from a 17 point deficit to a narrow three points, before Dallas poured it on late and won 37-27. In that game, he threw for over 200 yards and a score, with no interceptions. He did however show a propensity to hold the ball a little too long and was sacked three times. This is a common trait with inexperienced quarterbacks, and there’s no reason at this point to think that Rodgers won’t be able to learn to get rid of the ball a little quicker as he gains valuable experience this season.

Rodgers has had very little experience for other teams to plan against. However, even if he gets off to a great start in his first season as an NFL starting quarterback, it’ll be interesting to see how he handles teams beginning to prepare against him. After all, the Dallas Cowboys last year had planned for the gun-slinging style of Brett Favre, when Rodgers stepped in unexpectedly.

This season will be all about Rodgers identifying himself as a player, finding his style, and then having to work through the different defensive schemes he will face as the season progresses. He will have to adjust to the idea that his division match-ups will change dramatically, as the Minnesota Vikings defense he faces in Week 1 will be drastically different than the one he faces in Week 10.

Rodgers does benefit from having been brought along, similar to the way that guys such as Steve McNair, Carson Palmer, and Phillip Rivers were. However, it would be foolish to think that his inexperience is a complete non-issue when projecting his 2008 season. The biggest concern with Rodgers other than his lack of experience is his injury history. Rodgers broke his foot in November of 2006 and missed the remainder of the season. Then in 2007, he tore his hamstring.

We don’t know what to expect of him from a health perspective, but thus far he’s had two serious injuries in three seasons backing up the most durable quarterback in history. This is a big concern, and is also probably a contributing factor to why the Packers drafted Louisville QB Brian Brohm in the second round this year. While Rodgers is in no danger of losing his job to Brohm, it’s obvious that the Green Bay brass were concerned enough to provide some insurance behind the young signal caller.

I believe that his inability to stay healthy thus far in his career was a contributing factor to that move. One final thing to consider with Rodgers is that he has a great supporting cast. He has a great pair of bookend tackles to protect him, a tough budding running back in Ryan Grant to take some of the pressure off of him, and a slew of receivers to throw to, including Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, promising James Jones, and fleet-footed rookie Jordy Nelson.

He also has a defense that will provide him the opportunity to manage games, rather than trying to win them solely on the strength of his arm. Had Brett Favre returned this season, the Packers would’ve been considered definite contenders and he would’ve been tabbed an excellent first option in fantasy leagues. Without a doubt, Aaron Rodgers is in the best possible position to succeed.

So what can be expected from Rodgers this year? I think he’s a strong-armed kid with a lot of talent. I think he’s got the leadership and intangibles that you look for in a starting quarterback. I think that when he’s on the field, he’ll produce very good numbers and help his team win… when he’s on the field. Unfortunately, his injury history concerns me entirely too much to take a gamble on him as my top fantasy quarterback. I believe I’ll take the same approach to Rodgers in 2008 as the Packers have taken. I’ll keep him in mind as a starter, perhaps as the 10^th to 15^th QB off the board, but I’ll need to make sure that I pick up a capable backup just in case.

Offensive Outlook: The Chiefs are a bit of an odd case.

They’re coming off a year in which they finished 31st of 32 NFL teams in offensive yards and points, and yet they have two bona fide fantasy stars in Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez, and a legitimate up-and-comer in Dwayne Bowe.

Johnson’s season-ending injury in Week 6 obviously hurt them last year, and a full season of health should do wonders for the team’s offensive numbers.

But can this trio of standouts overcome a less-than-impressive quarterback situation and a very green offensive line?

QUARTERBACKS: It’s easy to forget that the Chiefs were 4-3 at one point last year with Damon Huard as the starter. When Johnson went down, things went south and Herm Edwards decided it was time for Brodie Croyle, even though he couldn’t win the job when given every opportunity in the preseason. Croyle responded with mediocrity, managing just 1 game over 200 yards passing without ever guiding the Chiefs to a win.

It still looks like he’s the man, just because Huard is a known commodity, and Croyle still is young enough to possibly improve. With his struggles last year and considering the fact that the offense is based around Johnson, Croyle should be no more than a third fantasy QB on your roster.

RUNNING BACKS: Johnson looks recovered from the leg injury that KO’d him last year, but is that enough to get him back to fantasy glory? The Chiefs line that he rumbled behind in his glorious seasons of ‘05 and ‘06 is pretty much history. And even though he was showing signs of life before his injury last year (3 100-games out of 4), his yards per carry was a lifeless 3.5. Johnson still has to be a first-rounder based on the fact that he’s still in his prime and can easily revert back to 1,700-yard, 20-TD form, but he’s a risky first-rounder for sure.

Kolby Smith had one monster game against Oakland replacing LJ but was punchless other than that. It looks like 3rd-round choice Jamaal Charles, a good receiver and big-play threat, will be the guy who gets the chance to spell Johnson. I’m not big on handcuff picks, but I’d consider one with Charles if you ended up with Johnson.

WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT ENDS: Bowe picked up 995 yards and 5 TDs in his rookie season, which is pretty impressive considering that rookie receivers often struggle and that the Chiefs aren’t the most dynamic passing team in the world. It woud be nice if someone stepped up on the other side to take some pressure off him, but Gonzalez draws enough attention to keep most double-teams away. Look for Bowe to top 1,000 yards and get that TD total up around 7 or 8, making hm a solid No. 2 fantasy option.

Devard Darling finally got playing time in Baltimore last year and showed big-play ability (18.1 yards per catch). The Chiefs scooped him up in free agency and he should be the starter opposite Bowe, but he likely won’t get enough balls thrown his way to make much of an impact. Jeff Webb and rookie Will Franklin are next on the depth chart, but they shouldn’t be considered on draft day.

Gonzalez silenced any doubters that felt he was slowing down by racking up 99 catches for 1,172 yards, tops among NFL tight ends. At age 32, he remains one of the few tight ends capable of putting up wide receiver-type numbers, which means you’ve got a big edge on the competition at tight end if you get him. He also seems to have a good rapport with Croyle, as his numbers really peaked in December when the young QB was in the lineup.

One thing he does not love is losing over and over again in spite of his unquestioned work ethic and ability to make plays.

Did he dread the possibility of another losing campaign so much that he would have sat out the year, as he threatened? In a word, no.

As much as he loathes losing, he loves making money, and he wouldn’t be doing that anywhere else but on the field in Cincinnati. Also, considering the parity that exists in the NFL, who’s to say that they can’t get it done in Bengaltown this year? The potential is undoubtedly still there, especially on offense.

He believes it, too.

So rest easy, Bengal fans. Catch a Reds game this summer. Come fall, Chad Johnson will be there, and with his ankle issues finally on their way to be taken care of, he will be ready for another season with TJ and Carson in his huddle.

Now, let’s talk fantasy value.

What I look for in a player is a high likelihood of success based on past performance, and no WR in the AFC has been more consistently high-performing in the last five years than Chad Johnson.

He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie season in 2001. Every year since 2003, he has caught between 87 and 97 passes, gained between 1,274 and 1,440 yards, and caught between 7 and 10 TDs. It doesn’t take a genius to forecast his output for next season. Same great QB, same tremendous complementary WR, same coach—methinks he’s going to catch about 95 for about 1,400, and score about 10. Call me crazy.

Now that his trade demands and supposed personal problems with his QB are over with (for now), one might be prone to thinking that he might even exceed those totals. That’s a pretty high standard, though. It would be nice if he could edge those TD numbers up a bit, as that is the only thing holding him back from Moss/Owens status (Braylon Edwards had 16 last year, but I need to see another year like that before he gets “status”).

If I take Johnson, I will be happy with him matching what he has done in the past, which is worthy of consideration from the third round on. If your league gives extra points for media attention, however, he’s a sure thing first rounder.

Clint Davis writes exclusively for MonsterDraft. He is the three-time defending champion of the storied Rocky Mountain Fantasy Football League. Reach him by email.

Offensive Outlook: The Broncos had little trouble moving the ball last year, but scoring points was another matter entirely. Despite finishing 11th in the league in yards, they were only 21st in the league in points.

Denver is trying to rectify this problem this year by adding a trio of veteran receivers who had flamed out elsewhere. But big question marks still abound:

Can Selvin Young carry the load at running back?

Will Jay Cutler’s diabetes diagnosis be a problem?

And will off-the-field nonsense derail the promising career of Brandon Marshall?

QUARTERBACKS: Cutler’s numbers in his first full year starting were nothing to be ashamed of: 3,497 yards and 20 TDs. But he dropped some 35 pounds during the season, and fatigue during an offseason workout led to the diabetes diagnosis. This could actually be a good thing; with proper treatment and diet, Cutler should feel stronger all season long. He could be a real sleeper this year, although it would be wise to have a solid back-up if you choose Cutler as your main fantasy starter.

Patrick Ramsey is the fall-back plan, and might be worth a play in certain match-ups if he’s on the field.

RUNNING BACKS: All fantasy players know that Mike Shanahan can’t be reiled upon to stick with one back throughout the course of the season. That’s why it’s hard to get too excited about the prospects of Selvin Young, who assumes the starting role in his second season after being an undrafted free agent. Still, there isn’t a lot of competition for the job, assuming no free agent is signed from now ’til training camp. Young showed explosive play-making ability last year (5.2 yards per carry) but had trouble finding the end zone. Try to get him as a second back with potential to put up No.1-type numbers.

Michael Pittman is second on the depth chart, but it’s likely Andre Hall, who had a couple of big games last year, is more of a threat to challenge Young for the job. Pittman is 32 and will likely serve as a third-down option. Hall has a chance to provide big numbers if things fall his way, which is what you want at the end of the draft. And, knowing Shanahan, you can’t entirely discount Mike Bell, a forgotten man last season, or Ryan Torain, a rookie with potential if he can stay healthy.

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS: Coming off a year in which he was 5th in the league in catches and 6th in yards, we should be talking about Brandon Marshall’s ascendancy to the fantasy elite. Instead he endured an offseason in which he severely lacerated his arm horsing around at his home and was publicly called out by Cutler to grow up, all while a DUI arrest is hanging over his head. It’s not unusual for a star receiver to be less than a choir boy, but this is still distressing to prospective owners. Marshall is a go-to fantasy receiver if he gets to camp healthy (which reports say should happen), but if you draft him, you’ll have to hold your breath all season waiting for the other shoe to drop.

After that, it’s a who’s-who of veteran receivers vying for spots in the lineup. Brandon Stokley was a starter last year, but he’ll be challenged by Darrell Jackson, Keary Colbert, and Samie Parker. Jackson has the best track record by far and is just two years removed from a 10-TD season, but he looked like a shell of himself last year in San Fran. I’d still take him over Parker or Colbert, who each had plenty of chances in their previous homes as high draft picks and couldn’t hold down a job. Rookie Eddie Royal looks like more of a return guy at this point.

Considering he didn’t play until Week 5, tight end Tony Scheffler’s 549 yards and 5 TDs are numbers that make him a candidate to be a fantasy starter this year. He has a great rapport with Cutler, and you might be able to get him cheap if less-alert owners are fooled by his mediocre ‘07 totals.

Offensive Outlook: The idea in the offseason in Tennessee seemed to be to surround Vince Young with some talented skill-position guys in the hopes that it would ignite the talent that seemed dormant last season.

Three draft picks in the first four rounds plus a smattering of free agents added a lot of quantity, but whether those additions provide quality is questionable.

Young is still lacking in the kind of top-flight receiver that a quarterback needs to get to the next level.

As such, this playoff team from a year ago might once again have to do it with an opportunistic defense and a buttoned-down offense that does not play to its star’s prodigious talents.

QUARTERBACKS: While Young’s completion percentage went up, so did his interceptions. His total TDs plummeted from 19 in his rookie year to just 12. Nagging injuries certainly seemed to sap much of the big-play ability that he had in ‘06, and a return to health would be a big boost. But it’s hard to get excited about his passing prospects with the receiving corps to which he’ll be throwing. He could provide a big fantasy reward if you take the risk, but you shouldn’t take that risk until you have a stable option at the position.

Kerry Collins is the back-up, but he shouldn’t be considered on draft day.

RUNNING BACKS: The Titans have the makings of an explosive running attack, but whether that translates into big fantasy numbers for one individual remains to be seen. LenDale White stayed healthy in his second year and rumbled for 1,110 yards and 7 TDs. He’ll be a good no. 2 fantasy back, but his lack of big-play ability and the Titans willingness to spread the wealth at the position means you should wait ’til at least Round 3 before drafting White.

First-round pick Chris Johnson should make a perfect complement to White with his ability to catch passes and run at the perimeters. The East Carolina product is a bit smallish for heavy action, but he could provide enough big plays to make him worth a late-round pick. If Johnson isn’t ready, Chris Henry will get another chance to fill the back-up role after an injury-plagued rookie campaign.

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS: There’s not much to get excited about here. The only promising option is Roydell Williams, who stepped up after a few non-descript seasons to become Young’s favorite target. He’s still young enough to be on the improve, so a borderline 1000-yard season with a handful of scores isn’t out of the question.

Justin Gage should start, but he’s just a possession guy who, despite great size, has never been a great red-zone guy. Justin McCareins returns from the Jets, where he received little playing time the past few years. He should be more of a factor on this depth chart, but he’s not worth drafting unless he wins a starting role.

The Titans were disappointed with their tight end play last year, so they went out and brought in several alternatives, including free agent Dwayne Blakley and 3rd-round pick Craig Stevens. But the big name is Alge Crumpler, who could be a nice fantasy sleeper at the position. Injuries and the overall malaise in Atlanta caused his poor numbers last year, but keep in mind that Crumpler averaged 800 yards and 6 TDs over the previous three seasons. He might lead the team in catches, making him a viable fantasy starter.

Offensive Outlook: With an overpowering running attack and a quarterback who minimized mistakes, the Jaguars offense kicked into another gear last season, finishing 7th in yards and 6th in points. The offseason changes were minimal, with a change at back-up quarterback and a slight shuffling of the deck at receiver the only significant moves.

The problem with the Jags for fantasy purposes is that they don’t have any offensive superstars carrying the whole load. The receiving corps is completly up for grabs, and their top two running backs split the load, keeping their value down. As a result, it’s hard to get overexcited about any individual Jaguar despite the good team numbers.

QUARTERBACKS: It took a few years, but Jack Del Rio finally realized that David Garrard was the guy for the job. He responded with an excellent season and a gutty playoff effort. As for his fantasy numbers, they weren’t half-bad either. He threw at least one TD in all but one of his starts and he finished particularly strong with 9 TD passes in his last 4 games. The team’s reliance on the run and lack of top-notch receivers likely keeps Garrard’s fantasy status at a back-up level, but he’d be a great back-up to have.

Cleo Lemon got valuable experience in Miami last year and performed admirably in a tough situation. He’d probably provide numbers similar to Garrard’s if he has to play.

RUNNING BACKS: The tandem of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew is a luxury for Del Rio but a bit of a headache to fantasy owners trying to figure out which one they should go for on draft day. Jones-Drew is the safer play based on Taylor’s age (32) and injury history (although he played in 15 games for the second straight season.) MJD’s numbers all dropped considerably from his stellar rookie season, but he still outscored Taylor, 9 TDs to 5.

But Taylor will still probably get more carries, and he seems to be getting better with age. His 5.4 yards per carry was a career-high for the second straight year, and he rewarded patient owners by catching fire down the stretch with 5 straight 100-yard performances. I would go with Jones-Drew as a third-round pick and Taylor in Round 4 or 5, but both should be considered a No.2 fantasy back no matter where they’re drafted.

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS: The top 5 guys on the depth chart all have a legitimate shot at being the team’s top statistical receiver this year, but that doesn’t mean that any of them should be high on your receiver list. If forced to pick a no.1 guy out of this bunch, I’d go with Jerry Porter. Arriving from a bad situation in Oakland, he probably has the most all-around talent of anyone in this group. But temper those expectations: For all that supposed talent, he never has had a 1,000-yard season.

Reggie Williams was the guy to have last year, but 10 TDs in 38 catches after just 5 in his first three seasons seems more like a statistical anomaly that the promise of things to come. Dennis Northcutt is a possession-type who is a safe bet for about 40 or 50 catches with little punch. Just when everyone had given up on Matt Jones, he caught 3 TDs in his last 4 games and added one in the postseason. He’s still too much of a risk for a high pick, but he might have the biggest potential to surprise in this bunch. And then there’s Troy Williamson, a first-round bust in Minnesota who’s hoping a change of scenery gets him going, but don’t expect much. As a matter of fact, you should steer clear of any of these guys until the second half of your draft.

Marcedes Lewis made nice improvement from his rookie season to his second year, but he’s no better than a No. 2 fantasy tight end.

Offensive Outlook: The Colts are the gold standard for consistent offensive production in the NFL. Year in and year out, you can’t go wrong with taking the Colts main offensive producers high in your fantasy draft. They weathered the departure of Edgerrin James two years ago, and they survived a fragment of a season last year from Marvin Harrison. 2007 Indy numbers: 5th in the league in offensive yardage, 3rd in scoring, without breaking a sweat.

That’s because Peyton Manning is the constant, running an offense that doesn’t change much but still confounds opposing defenses. They’re also practically slump-proof, which means that you shouldn’t be nervous about taking several Colts on draft day if you have the chance.

QUARTERBACK: If someone told you before the season that your fantasy quarterback was going to throw for 4,100 yards and 30 TDs, chances are you’d take it sight unseen. Well, those are the average numbers for Manning’s 10-year career. Others may have big seasons here and there, but with Manning, you have no worries. Tom Brady will likely go before him in most drafts this year, but don’t be surprised if Manning brings in numbers similar to or better than his New England counterpart. And he never gets hurt, so don’t bother with a handcuff pick of Jim Sorgi.

RUNNING BACKS: Joseph Addai produced as expected in his first full year as the starter, racking up 15 total TDs. Tony Dungy believes in spelling Addai far more than he ever did Edgerrin James, so Addai might trail some other number-one runners in yards. And he failed to reach the 100-yard barrier after Weeek 10, as his yards per carry tumbled. These are minor quibbles though, because Addai, in his 3rd year, might be hitting his prime. He’s a first-rounder without question.

Kenton Keith was a pleasant surprise as Addai’s caddy last year, racking up 533 yards in relief. Still, the Colts jumped at the chance to reacquire Dominic Rhodes after a lost season in Oakland. Rhodes inspired confidence with 100-yard games in the last two weeks of ‘07, and he’ll get a chance to supplant Keith based on his experience with the system.

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS: Reggie Wayne has officially assumed the mantle as the Colts’ go-to receiver, which automatically puts him in the elite of fantasy receivers. For the second straight year, he posted career-highs in catches (104) and yards (1,510) while rolling up double-figures in TDs for the second time in his career. Expect more of the same in ‘08, which means he must be mentioned right at the top of any receivers list and should be drafted no later than Round 3.

Harrison is 35, still can’t practice with his knee injury and is now facing some disturbing off-the-field issues. The guy who posted 9 straight seasons of over 1,000 yards and 10 TDs is likely gone for good. Tread lightly here unless he shows in the preseason that he can stay on the field. The better choice seems to be second-year man Anthony Gonzalez. Although a bit smallish to be a premier receiver, it’s not inconceivable that he could play the Wes Welker role and catch a ton of passes. Pencil Gonzalez in as at least a third fantasy receiver with the potential to be a solid No. 2 by the end of the year.

Dallas Clark finally had the explosive year fantasy owners had been expecting since he came into the league. He stayed relatively healthy, rolled to career highs in yards and receptions, and posted 11 TD’s to lead all tight ends. Don’t over-commit here though; Clark’s injury history and the depth of solid tight ends in the league makes him a guy more likely to bust than boom.

His talent is immense, his production eye popping at times.

Smith has finished each of the last three years with more than 1,000 yards. He averaged 76 yards receiving and the better part of a touchdown per game over that span, making him one of the top fantasy producers at wide receiver.

In 2005 he posted more than 1,500 yards and 12TD’s. That was the year that many moved him to the top of their draft boards.

Those who did in 2007 began the season with great promise. In the first two games of the season, Smith racked up 271 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns. Those who drafted Smith were fantasizing about league championship trophies.

The fantasy turned to grim reality beginning in week three when Smith put up a whopping 10 yards without a TD.

The difference? Quarterback Jake Delhomme went down with injury during week 2 and didn’t play again last season. Delhomme and Smith have enjoyed a unique chemistry that highlights Smith’s skills and makes him virtually impossible to cover - Superman in shoulder pads. Remove Delhomme from the equation and it’s like putting Kryptonite in Smith’s hip pocket - he becomes very ordinary.

The chink in Smith’s armor? He is seemingly dependent on quarterback Jake Delhomme for consistent production.

Over the past three seasons Smith has averaged 100 yards and .8 TD’s per game when he has been on the field with Delhomme. Without Delhomme he has averaged 55 yards and .3 TD’s.

Prior to last season, the Panthers recognized the problem and brought in David Carr as a backup hoping that he would provide more consistency if Delhomme went down with injury. The result: A for effort, a generous C- for the result. Unfortunately, the backup spot does not look to be any stronger this year.

Other wide receivers are dependent on their quarterback for success. Think Randy Moss and his incredible ‘07 season with Tom Brady following an abysmal Oakland experiment that saw him drop out of fantasy relevance.

However, Smith’s situation warrants special attention because of the injury history of Delhomme. He missed 14 games last season and 4 the year before. Those 4 games missed in 2006 were weeks 14-17 which essentially killed many fantasy owners playoff run.

All reports are that Delhomme is looking stronger than ever and that his recovery from last season’s injury is well ahead of schedule. With this good news, Smith’s prospects look great. Imagine what Smith could have done over the last two years with a healthy Delhomme. Ah, the possibilities.

However, the risk looms in the back of the minds of fantasy geeks everywhere.

In an ongoing experts league that MonsterDraft is participating in, Smith went in the 3rd round as the 11th overall wide receiver in a points per reception league. This pick could turn out to be an extraordinary value if Delhomme stays healthy. Will he? Who knows, we hope he will as it is a lot more fun to watch Smith with a big “S” on his chest than to see him grinding it out with Kryptonite in his pocket.

Where should you take him? It all depends on your risk tolerance.