I was that guy in your draft the last two years. The guy who took the chance on Reggie Bush in the early rounds in the hope that he would rip through the NFL like it was the Pac 10, Part Deux. Not this year, my friends.

Quick Pop Quiz: How many times has Reggie Bush run for 100 yards in his two-year NFL career with the Saints? If you said once, give yourself a prize. (I can’t afford it; like I said, I had Reggie Bush in all my fantasy leagues last year.)

You want some more disturbing statistics? OK, how about a career average of 3.7 yards a carry? And what do Ron Dayne, Jerious Norwood, and Maurice Morris have in common? All have rushed for more yards in the last two years than Reg-gie, Reg-gie.

Before you give me some claptrap about his receiving stats, take a closer look at Mr. Heisman’s numbers. While the receptions certainly help in such leagues that weigh them heavily in their scoring system, even that edge is mitigated by the fact that he has topped 100 total yards (rushing and receiving) a measly 10 times out of 29 NFL games. And his yards per catch last season dropped to a putrid 5.7 last season. Continue Reading »

Report cards grading each teams NFL draft are easy enough to write. After all, few teams are unlikely to earn anything below a C. The bulk of the players they select from are tops at their position, and all of them are young and over-flowing with untapped potential. No one really know what comes next- just ask players like Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, and Ryan Leaf. Even players taken on the second day are the cream of the college crop- and could develop into the league’s premier players. This may be the reason that GM’s around the league question if these expert grades are even worth the paper they’re written on.

Maybe they are, and maybe they’re not. Just like the team’s themselves, experts can only offer up their best guess on a player’s future. If history has taught us anything- it’s that of the chosen few- the very elite of the NFL draft class- not one of them is a sure thing to produce at the next level. Not one. And in that same vein- no one should be under estimated.

So without further adieu, the MonsterDraft report card for the NFL Draft- 2008:

AFC East

Buffalo Bills: Grade B+. CB Leodis McKelvin is a blue chipper. He can close on anyone- and can recover from a misstep before you blink. As a bonus- he’ll lay a little lumber now and again. If he had hands he would be a top rate receiver. Leodis might find a spot on the return teams. 6’6” WR James Hardy was a player the Bills coveted, and was sitting there for their second round pick. Hardy isn’t just big, he’s strong, and he has the agility and hands to make all sorts of catches. He loves the endzone too. Doesn’t have top end speed, but like a TO, it won’t matter much. DE Chris Ellis was a reach- and lost the Bills an A grade. A little undersized for an NFL line, he doesn’t play instinctive enough to project to linebacker. Was lazy in college, which has never translated well into the NFL. Good athlete though- one of the fastest lineman in the draft. Continue Reading »

The Miami Dolphins are in the unique position of being able to draft virtually the best available player who fits their scheme. However, unlike a team such as the San Diego Chargers who have this luxury due to a lack of any one glaring need, the Dolphins simply have so many needs that any good player will be able to contribute. That being said, here’s a look at what the biggest needs are for the Dolphins and how they might address them.

Before I get into that however, I feel I must address the Dolphins quarterback situation. Miami drafted a quarterback in the second round last year, former BYU standout John Beck. Beck may have had a rough rookie season, but he joins a long list of rookie quarterbacks who have struggled that includes John Elway, Steve Young, Drew Bledsoe, and Peyton Manning. While I’m not so bold as to compare Beck to those players, the point is that it is simply too early to judge Beck at this point in his career, and with so many needs at so many positions, coupled with the lack of a true can’t miss type of prospect at quarterback in this year’s draft, the Dolphins cannot afford to ignore the depth at other positions by taking a chance on another quarterback in the early rounds. This draft has depth at WR and CB, which are two high priority needs for the Dolphins, and they must address those needs with their two second round picks. While Bill Parcells may or may not agree with me, I believe that it would be unwise to draft a quarterback early, therefore that will not be how I see the Dolphins addressing one of their needs. Continue Reading »

Here’s my unique twist on the millions of NFL draft analyses out there: The first two rounds of the draft, with each pick what I would do if I was running each team and an explanation of my thought process.

Some of the ground rules:

- I’m allowed to make trades that I feel would benefit both teams, making this a little bit more realistic.

- While I don’t have time to watch film on every prospect (although if Todd McShay is reading this, I’m available if you need an intern) I base my judgments on my own analysis of team needs and reading various scouting reports around the Internet.

- The salary considerations of signing all my picks are of minor importance.

- When computing values for trades, I used the terrific guide published in ESPN the Magazine’s April 21 issue for the values of each pick.

- I’m biased in favor of adding value to certain positions (both lines, cornerback) and devaluing others (running back, quarterback, linebacker). I also tend to believe that bad teams are better off adding multiple good players, not one splashy great one.

- I’ll do an analysis of quarterback situations leaguewide with fantasy implications once the dust has settled after the draft.

OK, I’m on the clock… Continue Reading »

If Tom Brady had held a press conference at the beginning of the 2007 NFL season, boldly declaring his team was going to win ten games, few people would have taken notice.

Brady didn’t. Detroit Lions QB Jon Kitna did. And the snickering could be heard from every NFL city.

But after a surprising 6-2 start- his prediction looked more than plausible. It almost looked inevitable. The Lions first half effort was a beautiful occurrence for the Detroit fans. The stretch included beating the defending NFC champions (and division hated division rival) Chicago Bears twice.

Then came a 1-7 slide. A collapse so ugly it included a season ending loss to the Packers- a hated division rival that wasn’t even playing its starters.

And the snickering could be heard from every NFL city. And even some smaller suburbs. Continue Reading »

The long term deal to keep David Garrard in Jacksonville, rumored to be worth $60 million dollars, answers the big question regarding the Jaguars plans at QB for 2008 and beyond. Garrard is the man for this upcoming season - and the Jags hope for several beyond that.

This is about the most definitive statement anyone can make with respect to Garrard and the prospect for his success. As recently as the ’07 playoffs - Garrard can look really bad (please see the win over Pittsburgh - 43% completion rate - 42 QB rating) or really good (please see the next weeks loss to New England - a 67% completion rate - 100.3 QB rating). Will the real David Garrard please stand up?

I think he has. 2007 was the first time Garrard was placed at the helm from day one - if you consider day one the start of the regular season. Despite not getting the majority of snaps in training camp and preseason - Garrard handled himself like an accomplished veteran - leading the Jags to an 11-5 record and two games into the playoffs. And his numbers were solid, if not spectacular - hampered by missing three games in the middle of the year and taking a fourth off in preparation for the playoffs.

In twelve starts - Garrard compiled 2,500 yards, a 64% completion percentage, and wrapped it up with a 102 QB rating. He has the look of a leader - and of an athlete capable of taking his play to the next level. Continue Reading »

In 2007, LaDainian Tomlinson was essentially the unanimous choice at number one in fantasy drafts. And with good reason. LT finished at the top of most fantasy scoring lists in ’06 - a spot generally reserved for the most prolific QB.

The phenomenon from San Diego didn’t disappoint. After a relatively slow start, his 1500 rushing yards and 19 TD’s (15 rushing, 3 receiving, and 1 passing) proved enough to finish number two overall in most scoring systems, second only to the gaudy numbers posted by Tom Brady. It was more than enough to finish well above the three players taken almost immediately after him (S. Jackson, L. Johnson, and F. Gore).

So with production like that - we can pencil LT into the number one slot for 2008 as well, right?

Not so fast.

A young buck by the name of Adrian Peterson, RB Minnesota, seems to have caught the attention of owners trying to outsmart the rest of their league - and some are considering passing on LT for the second year man busting with potential. And the early questions may sound something like “Are you crazy?” Continue Reading »

As a man who swore that Bo Scaife was a sleeper a year ago, perhaps I should cut bait on all Titans tight ends. But I’m here to tell you that Alge Crumpler is a good fit in Tennessee, and he is worth a look on fantasy draft day.

First of all, you really can’t blame the guy for last season in Atlanta. The whole Vick/Petrino mess really destroyed any semblance of normalcy there, so you can almost throw the whole year out.

Second, there still isn’t a breakout guy in the group of wide receivers the Titans have. Maybe the NFL draft will change that. Somebody has to catch some passes for this team, and Crumpler has a far better record of doing just that than anybody else on the roster. Continue Reading »

It’s been three years since Donovan McNabb played sixteen games in a season. Four if you want to be technical - but that’s a little unfair. In 2004 he was benched in week 16 to prepare for a playoff run to the Super Bowl.

Three long years without completing a full season. That’s enough to make anyone nervous. But if we look inside the numbers - injuries may not be the biggest concern when drafting McNabb. His numbers - even at full health - are not always top tier.

Consider Donovan’s career numbers. His 85.9 career QB rating is lower then 20 of the 32 starters last season. Lower than all 5 of the QB’s drafted in front of him in 2007 (P. Manning, Brady, Palmer, Brees, and Bulger). It’s also lower then 5 of the QB’s drafted below him (Romo, Warner, Roethlisberger, Hasselbeck, and Cutler). Those five players were among the 13 total QB’s who finished above McNabb in fantasy scoring.

Quarterback rating is not the last word in QB value. No stat is. But when you crunch the numbers - you may not see McNabb as the top 10 fantasy QB everyone seems to think he is. His athleticism and win/loss record keep owners coming back in the early rounds. But consider that Kurt Warner - undrafted in most 2007 leagues - also missed two games like Donovan - and finished well ahead of McNabb in scoring. Starting to get a clearer picture of McNabb’s lack of fantasy pop? Continue Reading »

With the first pick in the 2008 NFL draft…

Those are the only words I can guarantee you will hear on April 26th - because not only is the first player to be selected still a mystery, I’m not so sure the team that currently holds the coveted pick will be making the selection when the time comes.

At the moment, that pick belongs to the Miami Dolphins. In 2008, that means King of Football operations Bill Parcells and his hand picked head coach Tony Sparano will be working the war room. Assuming they don’t trade the pick, a team with as many glaring holes to fill as the Dolphins have could realistically take any one of a handful of talented athletes with the top slot.

Some coaches say the best rule to follow is to simply take the best player on the board. If the Dolphins did that, then Darren McFadden, RB from Arkansas, would be donning the aqua and orange. And he’s not a terrible fit there. Ronnie Brown has been less then impressive - compiling only average numbers and failing to play sixteen games in any of his three seasons. No doubt - Brown had the chips stacked against him in south Florida - but combined with the fact that he is coming off a serious knee injury, the Dolphins at the very least must have McFadden on their radar. And what a blip he makes. McFadden is - as they say - the total package. Speed, quickness, vision, balance, and a hint of power that comes from a solid core. Game breaker should be tattooed on his back. McFadden is as close to a can’t miss prospect as the draft offers. Continue Reading »